{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2f1337d-ca88-43e4-8f2d-b27b7f77d40d", "symbol": "XEMC", "name": "iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.73, "architecture_energy": 24.548, "architecture_maturity": 66.533, "architecture_confidence": 90.788, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.04, "rotation_up": 18.08, "upward_expansion": 52.3, "deceleration": 93.98, "rotation_down": 36.17, "downward_expansion": 18.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 77.641333, 79.583055, 79.158732, 76.615671 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 78.290001, "trend_reference": 73.225878, "distance_from_trend": 0.069158, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.887446, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.508843, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.976975, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.181023, "excess_performance": 0.060602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069158, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110443, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.508843, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124136, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.05977, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149081, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.181023, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.289096, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48200, "relative_activity": 0.242803, "balance": 1.289096, "dry_up": 0.401733, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062715, "annualized_volatility": 0.33195, "from_high_reference": -0.119411, "from_low_reference": 0.543882 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 73.225878, "fair_value_reference": 51.887446, "structural_low": 62.27, "invalidation": "A sustained 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0.108335, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.108404, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.108335, "worst_return": 0.108335, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019919, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011743, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.002706, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055932, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021784, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.139902, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048588, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00239, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.157928, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044775, 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2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.718299, "energy": 24.353414, "activity_lines": [ 77.891999, 80.076228, 78.954523, 76.255577 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.290001, "volume": 48200, "typical_volume": 198515.0, "trend": 73.225878, "fair_value": 51.887446, "relative_strength": 5.976975, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.729971, "energy": 24.548151, "activity_lines": [ 77.641333, 79.583055, 79.158732, 76.615671 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }