{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2f14c43-f550-497e-baa1-88c9416557e2", "symbol": "688307", "name": "Jiaxing ZMAX Optech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.135, "architecture_energy": 59.52, "architecture_maturity": 14.371, "architecture_confidence": 65.779, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.87, "rotation_up": 14.07, "upward_expansion": 27.53, "deceleration": 50.06, "rotation_down": 67.58, "downward_expansion": 52.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.989333, 53.793636, 61.782658, 60.059317 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 46.5, "trend_reference": 55.005849, "distance_from_trend": -0.154635, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.324613, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.766408, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.772751, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.414001, "excess_performance": 0.457205, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154635, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.218103, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.766408, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.587607, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.087728, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.091681, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.414001, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.458092, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27701634, "relative_activity": 0.791994, "balance": 0.458092, "dry_up": 0.905217, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.273302, "annualized_volatility": 0.938827, "from_high_reference": -0.536391, "from_low_reference": 1.145678 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.005849, "fair_value_reference": 26.324613, "structural_low": 32.622271, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.209103, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.13897, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057351, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119983, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -16.377756, "energy": 29.318385, "activity_lines": [ 54.644666, 61.755454, 65.935678, 61.591959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.5, "volume": 34179020, "typical_volume": 36290695.6, "trend": 54.4802, "fair_value": 26.162276, "relative_strength": -6.734582, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.732054, "energy": 55.162079, "activity_lines": [ 47.265333, 56.587454, 63.476208, 60.574169 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.5, "volume": 27701634, "typical_volume": 34977087.4, "trend": 55.005849, "fair_value": 26.324613, "relative_strength": 8.772751, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.134602, "energy": 59.519917, "activity_lines": [ 44.989333, 53.793636, 61.782658, 60.059317 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }