{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2f2bd60-5674-415e-bb15-8f6b78484775", "symbol": "603177", "name": "Zhejiang Tuna Environmental Science & TechnologyCo.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.076, "architecture_energy": 41.766, "architecture_maturity": 51.133, "architecture_confidence": 81.62, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.36, "rotation_up": 24.12, "upward_expansion": 6.07, "deceleration": 58.64, "rotation_down": 46.91, "downward_expansion": 77.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.751333, 8.821091, 9.590429, 10.132194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.05, "trend_reference": 10.767, "distance_from_trend": -0.159469, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.819515, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.078366, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.20152, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.219154, "excess_performance": -0.175951, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.159469, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081706, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.078366, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.277806, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182015, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198156, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.219154, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.929463, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19515355, "relative_activity": 0.850394, "balance": 1.929463, "dry_up": 1.211158, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137017, "annualized_volatility": 0.603783, "from_high_reference": -0.48433, "from_low_reference": 0.236339 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.767, "fair_value_reference": 9.819515, "structural_low": 7.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.025037, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.002836, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.229805, "worst_return": -0.216157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.019447, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.000685, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.265248, "worst_return": -0.213636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.068063, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.005811, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.489229, "worst_return": -0.228732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-23.702077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.059884, "energy": 72.815377, "activity_lines": [ 8.83, 9.464182, 10.296667, 10.710968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.03, "volume": 41935585, "typical_volume": 24499995.8, "trend": 11.030333, "fair_value": 9.920091, "relative_strength": -15.310259, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.888958, "energy": 74.36514, "activity_lines": [ 8.806, 9.272364, 10.120143, 10.576753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.09, "volume": 29545585, "typical_volume": 23330142.9, "trend": 10.924, "fair_value": 9.885529, "relative_strength": -24.857117, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.330217, "energy": 72.391157, "activity_lines": [ 8.496, 8.965818, 9.871048, 10.387054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.76, "volume": 20181100, "typical_volume": 22845537.9, "trend": 10.836333, "fair_value": 9.851178, "relative_strength": -18.802636, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.144215, "energy": 49.306705, "activity_lines": [ 8.595333, 8.841273, 9.708619, 10.247441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.05, "volume": 19515355, "typical_volume": 22948615.65, "trend": 10.767, "fair_value": 9.819515, "relative_strength": -18.20152, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.075759, "energy": 41.765577, "activity_lines": [ 8.751333, 8.821091, 9.590429, 10.132194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }