{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2f5bef1-1a0d-4f26-a1e3-faad93e911f4", "symbol": "DEEZR", "name": "Deezer S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 91.893, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 8.573, "architecture_energy": 16.779, "architecture_maturity": 29.94, "architecture_confidence": 48.236, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.76, "rotation_up": 52.92, "upward_expansion": 30.57, "deceleration": 40.99, "rotation_down": 18.29, "downward_expansion": 24.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.124667, 1.105455, 1.106429, 1.114806 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.15, "trend_reference": 1.121167, "distance_from_trend": 0.025717, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.553641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.259803, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.866857, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.045455, "excess_performance": -0.007857, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025717, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011792, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.259803, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050328, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038669, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01048, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045455, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.165886, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 125128, "relative_activity": 1.331976, "balance": 2.165886, "dry_up": 1.918684, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047826, "annualized_volatility": 0.397982, "from_high_reference": -0.172662, "from_low_reference": 0.277778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.121167, "fair_value_reference": 1.553641, "structural_low": 1.01, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.026549, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.015995, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.032847, "worst_return": -0.081818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.031532, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.021286, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.091241, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.12974, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.12549, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.106195, "worst_return": -0.153285, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.145985, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.118935, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.145985, "worst_return": -0.145985, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054348, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.438228, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130031, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069343, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.080321, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017699, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.159851, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018018, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": 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1.120357, 1.123237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.09, "volume": 2646, "typical_volume": 98474.95, "trend": 1.120833, "fair_value": 1.594571, "relative_strength": -8.458754, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.751808, "energy": 36.939152, "activity_lines": [ 1.095333, 1.102818, 1.116619, 1.121387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.01, "volume": 50618, "typical_volume": 98600.25, "trend": 1.119333, "fair_value": 1.586077, "relative_strength": -13.057939, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.952878, "energy": 73.744993, "activity_lines": [ 1.067333, 1.084636, 1.105476, 1.114237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.075, "volume": 134590, "typical_volume": 103574.9, "trend": 1.1215, "fair_value": 1.576429, "relative_strength": -7.147036, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.69942, "energy": 61.559717, "activity_lines": [ 1.065667, 1.080273, 1.101095, 1.111376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.1, "volume": 56098, "typical_volume": 104193.05, "trend": 1.119833, "fair_value": 1.567327, "relative_strength": -4.963169, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.799294, "energy": 52.146627, "activity_lines": [ 1.074, 1.081636, 1.09931, 1.109989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.165, "volume": 405161, "typical_volume": 123063.05, "trend": 1.1205, "fair_value": 1.559827, "relative_strength": -0.602109, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.717802, "energy": 10.285066, "activity_lines": [ 1.104, 1.095364, 1.103714, 1.112903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.15, "volume": 125128, "typical_volume": 93941.6, "trend": 1.121167, "fair_value": 1.553641, "relative_strength": -3.866857, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.572553, "energy": 16.778683, "activity_lines": [ 1.124667, 1.105455, 1.106429, 1.114806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }