{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2fcd32a-1c5c-475e-97ca-1570ab4e1572", "symbol": "HUBS", "name": "HubSpot Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.95, "architecture_energy": 13.403, "architecture_maturity": 29.567, "architecture_confidence": 66.511, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.45, "rotation_up": 35.49, "upward_expansion": 31.76, "deceleration": 46.23, "rotation_down": 18.0, "downward_expansion": 40.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 218.157333, 209.340545, 207.789476, 215.653441 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 210.45, "trend_reference": 230.639667, "distance_from_trend": -0.087538, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 492.770833, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.572925, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -41.533326, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.09515, "excess_performance": -0.220775, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087538, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204246, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.572925, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046801, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.415333, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157991, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09515, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.262256, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18633984, "relative_activity": 2.067949, "balance": 1.262256, "dry_up": 1.191491, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168692, "annualized_volatility": 0.741009, "from_high_reference": -0.599532, "from_low_reference": 0.240641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 230.639667, "fair_value_reference": 492.770833, "structural_low": 169.63, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.023391, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.047899, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.260509, "worst_return": -0.186443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.202139, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.097233, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.345201, "worst_return": -0.14757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.25832, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.126428, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.288895, "worst_return": 0.151493, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.131062, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025241, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.106721, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.16982, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004777, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", 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206.838667, 222.102366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 224.26, "volume": 6415683, "typical_volume": 8195908.6, "trend": 247.281333, "fair_value": 498.511987, "relative_strength": -39.073999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.754466, "energy": 20.001198, "activity_lines": [ 204.97, 201.018545, 207.160381, 220.261849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 204.89, "volume": 9030218, "typical_volume": 8278056.1, "trend": 240.839, "fair_value": 496.255769, "relative_strength": -42.647368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.550845, "energy": 16.241352, "activity_lines": [ 207.576, 201.781091, 205.829, 217.526925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 237.36, "volume": 8865522, "typical_volume": 8332584.55, "trend": 236.01, "fair_value": 494.676731, "relative_strength": -32.96438, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.348324, "energy": 10.597196, "activity_lines": [ 219.081333, 208.328909, 208.026524, 217.302473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 210.45, "volume": 18633984, "typical_volume": 9010853.6, "trend": 230.639667, "fair_value": 492.770833, "relative_strength": -41.533326, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.949819, "energy": 13.403019, "activity_lines": [ 218.157333, 209.340545, 207.789476, 215.653441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }