{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2fe7a7f-5819-4bf0-be62-09c7290aafd5", "symbol": "ACHR", "name": "Archer Aviation Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.212, "architecture_energy": 29.861, "architecture_maturity": 40.746, "architecture_confidence": 64.997, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.66, "rotation_up": 23.36, "upward_expansion": 16.53, "deceleration": 62.09, "rotation_down": 47.25, "downward_expansion": 66.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.962, 4.946727, 5.302667, 5.532538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.59, "trend_reference": 6.011, "distance_from_trend": -0.070038, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.684615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.163751, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.123643, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.234247, "excess_performance": -0.359871, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070038, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145517, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.163751, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147452, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.331236, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014369, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.234247, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.959087, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143937669, "relative_activity": 0.797133, "balance": 0.959087, "dry_up": 0.923478, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154736, "annualized_volatility": 0.648892, "from_high_reference": -0.617647, "from_low_reference": 0.3 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.011, "fair_value_reference": 6.684615, "structural_low": 4.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.001509, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042434, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.128535, "worst_return": -0.279208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.043539, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.075086, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 1.641509, "worst_return": -0.313929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.107937, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.118761, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.386707, "worst_return": -0.205821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.788654, "energy": 65.746586, "activity_lines": [ 4.96, 5.33, 5.587, 5.901204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.44, "volume": 128206079, "typical_volume": 176232154.5, "trend": 6.338667, "fair_value": 6.691987, "relative_strength": -47.450566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.542332, "energy": 72.031634, "activity_lines": [ 4.758, 5.110545, 5.461143, 5.77071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.77, "volume": 254230181, "typical_volume": 179987489.55, "trend": 6.234667, "fair_value": 6.691923, "relative_strength": -42.101529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.495415, "energy": 55.207416, "activity_lines": [ 4.708667, 4.988182, 5.379476, 5.669505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.64, "volume": 140632687, "typical_volume": 180721703.2, "trend": 6.118333, "fair_value": 6.685769, "relative_strength": -43.365514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.64039, "energy": 46.292542, "activity_lines": [ 4.669333, 4.865455, 5.292524, 5.566624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.59, "volume": 143937669, "typical_volume": 180569260.6, "trend": 6.011, "fair_value": 6.684615, "relative_strength": -33.123643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.212281, "energy": 29.860964, "activity_lines": [ 4.962, 4.946727, 5.302667, 5.532538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }