{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e301d36f-0743-4b33-9733-45822c7d6a09",
    "symbol": "HMAF",
    "name": "HSBC MSCI AC FAR EAST ex JAPAN UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^SSMI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 93.614,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 11.146,
    "architecture_energy": 19.811,
    "architecture_maturity": 65.389,
    "architecture_confidence": 81.952,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 60.01,
        "rotation_up": 16.81,
        "upward_expansion": 45.98,
        "deceleration": 87.97,
        "rotation_down": 39.95,
        "downward_expansion": 28.65
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        88.205333,
        89.904182,
        89.999,
        87.610946
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 89.07,
    "trend_reference": 84.437333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.054865,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 58.249199,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.52912,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 4.320523,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.151073,
    "excess_performance": 0.068189,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.054865,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.094788,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.52912,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.155575,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.043205,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.243368,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.151073,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.73185,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 19640,
      "relative_activity": 0.508286,
      "balance": 1.73185,
      "dry_up": 0.559975,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.049063,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.291573,
      "from_high_reference": -0.093712,
      "from_low_reference": 0.459925
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 84.437333,
      "fair_value_reference": 58.249199,
      "structural_low": 71.480003,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.001702,
        "positive_rate": 0.555556,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.555556,
        "median_excess_return": 0.012642,
        "regime_survival": 0.444444,
        "best_return": 0.154183,
        "worst_return": -0.032011,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.090935,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006731,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.267906,
        "worst_return": -0.018911,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.134528,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.076942,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.309065,
        "worst_return": -0.030975,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.03874,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001181,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.118453,
        "worst_return": -0.040974,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-08",
        "end": "2024-04-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.033478,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-05-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.040332,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-10",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.058046,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.020727,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.040312,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.010194,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.121515,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.028912,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.263216,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.017122,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.089416,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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        "return": 0.010551,
        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 84.220001,
        "volume": 38310,
        "typical_volume": 31514.35,
        "trend": 74.113667,
        "fair_value": 54.13125,
        "relative_strength": 18.907312,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.893348,
        "energy": 80.716376,
        "activity_lines": [
          83.030668,
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          78.689763,
          76.699678
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 91.709999,
        "volume": 8134,
        "typical_volume": 29290.15,
        "trend": 74.881,
        "fair_value": 54.437148,
        "relative_strength": 28.65732,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.445421,
        "energy": 92.36379,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 89.129997,
        "volume": 86316,
        "typical_volume": 33230.4,
        "trend": 75.575333,
        "fair_value": 54.721955,
        "relative_strength": 22.924518,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.21365,
        "energy": 88.032612,
        "activity_lines": [
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          81.16481,
          78.754215
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 90.860001,
        "volume": 22972,
        "typical_volume": 34259.65,
        "trend": 76.300667,
        "fair_value": 55.019423,
        "relative_strength": 21.74177,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.115646,
        "energy": 88.089497,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 95.139999,
        "volume": 291900,
        "typical_volume": 47795.9,
        "trend": 77.126667,
        "fair_value": 55.339968,
        "relative_strength": 25.958583,
        "stage": 2,
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        "direction": 85.568865,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 90.980003,
        "volume": 49996,
        "typical_volume": 49651.6,
        "trend": 77.882667,
        "fair_value": 55.630289,
        "relative_strength": 20.895411,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.114148,
        "energy": 76.611542,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 92.779999,
        "volume": 1829,
        "typical_volume": 46501.3,
        "trend": 78.655,
        "fair_value": 55.924872,
        "relative_strength": 19.548827,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 69.996454,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 43302.65,
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        "fair_value": 56.269007,
        "relative_strength": 24.812426,
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        "energy": 83.311695,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 92.760002,
        "volume": 7490,
        "typical_volume": 41742.55,
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        "fair_value": 56.577084,
        "relative_strength": 14.075896,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.271585,
        "energy": 60.54133,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 93.199997,
        "volume": 1917,
        "typical_volume": 40919.35,
        "trend": 81.342333,
        "fair_value": 56.890289,
        "relative_strength": 12.027482,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.547264,
        "energy": 58.065567,
        "activity_lines": [
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          88.850714,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 91.870003,
        "volume": 4838,
        "typical_volume": 40362.3,
        "trend": 82.111333,
        "fair_value": 57.180289,
        "relative_strength": 11.341923,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.149396,
        "energy": 53.927557,
        "activity_lines": [
          93.292667,
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          89.482334,
          86.400323
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 86.639999,
        "volume": 50220,
        "typical_volume": 42547.8,
        "trend": 82.722333,
        "fair_value": 57.441795,
        "relative_strength": 3.878436,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.369491,
        "energy": 28.46407,
        "activity_lines": [
          90.926,
          92.014182,
          89.565381,
          86.692495
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 88.139999,
        "volume": 12170,
        "typical_volume": 42133.2,
        "trend": 83.367666,
        "fair_value": 57.703302,
        "relative_strength": 5.449402,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 32.732843,
        "energy": 24.320063,
        "activity_lines": [
          89.468666,
          91.286,
          89.772524,
          87.042022
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 87.040001,
        "volume": 4519,
        "typical_volume": 38242.0,
        "trend": 83.924,
        "fair_value": 57.963846,
        "relative_strength": 3.674528,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 21.766544,
        "energy": 22.83929,
        "activity_lines": [
          88.308,
          90.375818,
          89.816238,
          87.278946
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 89.07,
        "volume": 19640,
        "typical_volume": 38639.7,
        "trend": 84.437333,
        "fair_value": 58.249199,
        "relative_strength": 4.320523,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 11.146328,
        "energy": 19.810565,
        "activity_lines": [
          88.205333,
          89.904182,
          89.999,
          87.610946
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}