{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3047354-cb1c-470c-9359-c9fe6a7ec64f", "symbol": "SRN", "name": "Surefire Resources NL", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.711, "architecture_energy": 51.361, "architecture_maturity": 85.983, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.74, "rotation_up": 27.57, "upward_expansion": 29.7, "deceleration": 24.55, "rotation_down": 35.39, "downward_expansion": 68.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.023067, 0.022745, 0.024019, 0.026847 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.024, "trend_reference": 0.031467, "distance_from_trend": -0.237288, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.123781, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.80611, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -40.535529, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.52, "excess_performance": -0.583706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.237288, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22623, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.80611, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029945, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.405355, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048463, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.52, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.494296, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 961324, "relative_activity": 1.997976, "balance": 0.494296, "dry_up": 1.252796, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134615, "annualized_volatility": 2.005611, "from_high_reference": -0.68, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.031467, "fair_value_reference": 0.123781, "structural_low": 0.018, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.275, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.040803, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.363639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.193751, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.21255, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.307697, "worst_return": -0.384618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.071429, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.041866, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.615387, "worst_return": -0.500003, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -44.799908, "energy": 37.619926, "activity_lines": [ 0.022733, 0.022418, 0.025336, 0.028834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.024, "volume": 538312, "typical_volume": 478344.45, "trend": 0.0333, "fair_value": 0.128211, "relative_strength": -38.961621, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.11507, "energy": 41.544616, "activity_lines": [ 0.023133, 0.022691, 0.024943, 0.028178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.021, "volume": 699722, "typical_volume": 449137.0, "trend": 0.032333, "fair_value": 0.12606, "relative_strength": -47.027891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.961638, "energy": 56.034052, "activity_lines": [ 0.0226, 0.022436, 0.024329, 0.027385 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.024, "volume": 961324, "typical_volume": 481149.0, "trend": 0.031467, "fair_value": 0.123781, "relative_strength": -40.535529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.711027, "energy": 51.36145, "activity_lines": [ 0.023067, 0.022745, 0.024019, 0.026847 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }