{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e308123f-e6b1-4d21-80ed-c7d9bd2b713b", "symbol": "BDC", "name": "Belden Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 48.367, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 9.281, "architecture_energy": 10.766, "architecture_maturity": 14.104, "architecture_confidence": 69.896, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.89, "rotation_up": 33.55, "upward_expansion": 32.06, "deceleration": 38.45, "rotation_down": 25.5, "downward_expansion": 47.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 118.554667, 115.987056, 114.758699, 116.631659 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 132.82, "trend_reference": 119.589558, "distance_from_trend": 0.110632, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 105.485855, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.259126, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.537003, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.04878, "excess_performance": -0.174405, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110632, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005397, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.259126, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.177012, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01537, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157947, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04878, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.905283, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2334033, "relative_activity": 0.939184, "balance": 0.905283, "dry_up": 1.141308, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082403, "annualized_volatility": 0.533039, "from_high_reference": -0.169117, "from_low_reference": 0.355306 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 119.589558, "fair_value_reference": 105.485855, "structural_low": 98.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.100503, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.059265, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.225232, "worst_return": -0.073549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.122054, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.128862, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.226542, "worst_return": -0.064431, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.068679, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.097453, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.411037, "worst_return": -0.060265, 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"date": "2026-07-03", "close": 115.41, "volume": 2230518, "typical_volume": 2231845.55, "trend": 120.322824, "fair_value": 104.79522, "relative_strength": -13.388422, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.783328, "energy": 20.782445, "activity_lines": [ 117.404538, 113.884057, 115.90967, 118.510975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 106.96, "volume": 2392010, "typical_volume": 2298430.45, "trend": 119.809295, "fair_value": 104.859388, "relative_strength": -20.325061, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.724084, "energy": 21.992022, "activity_lines": [ 114.434097, 112.917745, 114.753102, 117.648858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 101.39, "volume": 3042065, "typical_volume": 2376919.95, "trend": 119.266633, "fair_value": 104.898876, "relative_strength": -22.71047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.003512, "energy": 41.286406, "activity_lines": [ 109.554667, 111.068557, 113.250372, 116.460516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 102.76, "volume": 2574323, "typical_volume": 2386323.25, "trend": 118.749654, "fair_value": 104.954158, "relative_strength": -20.64514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.313995, "energy": 57.422396, "activity_lines": [ 106.038667, 109.665961, 112.077109, 115.395572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 124.05, "volume": 3394956, "typical_volume": 2463922.6, "trend": 118.960993, "fair_value": 105.193268, "relative_strength": -4.98309, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.536925, "energy": 24.840485, "activity_lines": [ 110.986, 112.193461, 113.023067, 115.73753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 132.82, "volume": 2334033, "typical_volume": 2485170.5, "trend": 119.589558, "fair_value": 105.485855, "relative_strength": -1.537003, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.28086, "energy": 10.766236, "activity_lines": [ 118.554667, 115.987056, 114.758699, 116.631659 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }