{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e30a7484-f8ee-41e6-bf7d-301f5f1bad86", "symbol": "WLK", "name": "Westlake Chemical Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.517, "architecture_energy": 64.799, "architecture_maturity": 31.283, "architecture_confidence": 94.962, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.04, "rotation_up": 26.87, "upward_expansion": 14.15, "deceleration": 44.55, "rotation_down": 53.44, "downward_expansion": 87.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 74.770667, 75.980364, 82.766138, 88.439909 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 77.47, "trend_reference": 92.718686, "distance_from_trend": -0.164462, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 107.700455, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.28069, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.217984, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.183374, "excess_performance": -0.308999, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.164462, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033307, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.28069, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124599, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19218, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178935, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.183374, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.665349, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8840622, "relative_activity": 1.599516, "balance": 0.665349, "dry_up": 1.045234, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085828, "annualized_volatility": 0.471653, "from_high_reference": -0.372635, "from_low_reference": 0.402438 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 92.718686, "fair_value_reference": 107.700455, "structural_low": 68.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.018191, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.007795, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.139078, "worst_return": -0.109969, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.007267, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034163, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.489433, "worst_return": -0.297788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.295098, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.326841, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.464643, "worst_return": -0.390265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-49.741814, "energy": 68.123529, "activity_lines": [ 78.854, 82.878786, 92.614984, 94.202019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 75.49, "volume": 6256329, "typical_volume": 5780157.65, "trend": 92.745438, "fair_value": 108.986108, "relative_strength": -20.644062, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.066233, "energy": 71.847647, "activity_lines": [ 77.03, 80.688714, 90.455915, 93.092884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 77.63, "volume": 3432508, "typical_volume": 5573397.6, "trend": 92.943573, "fair_value": 108.698653, "relative_strength": -16.81712, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.961224, "energy": 79.239864, "activity_lines": [ 76.529333, 79.593371, 88.585717, 92.117694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 73.82, "volume": 4316551, "typical_volume": 5396883.25, "trend": 92.973174, "fair_value": 108.343253, "relative_strength": -20.032152, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.239841, "energy": 79.046384, "activity_lines": [ 75.483333, 78.089972, 86.479239, 90.883915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.5, "volume": 6518613, "typical_volume": 5401603.5, "trend": 92.878924, "fair_value": 108.002839, "relative_strength": -24.163027, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.048291, "energy": 77.950478, "activity_lines": [ 73.761333, 76.241818, 84.193479, 89.434033 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.47, "volume": 8840622, "typical_volume": 5527061.4, "trend": 92.718686, "fair_value": 107.700455, "relative_strength": -19.217984, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.517252, "energy": 64.799013, "activity_lines": [ 74.770667, 75.980364, 82.766138, 88.439909 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }