{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e30b8b6a-f334-4c8b-9f3a-7db92d3a5340", "symbol": "002645", "name": "Jiangsu Huahong Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.757, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.474, "architecture_energy": 38.852, "architecture_maturity": 8.627, "architecture_confidence": 48.713, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.72, "rotation_up": 14.06, "upward_expansion": 17.83, "deceleration": 63.71, "rotation_down": 68.95, "downward_expansion": 45.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.842666, 21.201818, 22.822187, 21.788389 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.209999, "trend_reference": 20.171505, "distance_from_trend": -0.047667, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.802918, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.627564, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.311064, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.233783, "excess_performance": 0.226383, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047667, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179309, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.627564, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.480426, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.043111, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.251867, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.233783, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.644136, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 251279916, "relative_activity": 1.291789, "balance": 1.644136, "dry_up": 0.974237, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.242717, "annualized_volatility": 0.948841, "from_high_reference": -0.47528, "from_low_reference": 0.487994 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.171505, "fair_value_reference": 11.802918, "structural_low": 13.762433, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.007375, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.050506, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.058952, "worst_return": -0.237566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.100084, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.086594, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.28776, "worst_return": -0.211111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.138365, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.138757, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.113569, "worst_return": -0.195312, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.138889, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.259143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128105, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.45045, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059776, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.150775, 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4.324084, "energy": 21.07228, "activity_lines": [ 23.094667, 25.672121, 24.18888, 22.299755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.809999, "volume": 183900201, "typical_volume": 191015220.5, "trend": 19.977171, "fair_value": 11.7242, "relative_strength": -5.289632, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.417989, "energy": 28.741532, "activity_lines": [ 20.040666, 23.961446, 23.687189, 22.100411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.95, "volume": 159452322, "typical_volume": 189869153.2, "trend": 20.019171, "fair_value": 11.749392, "relative_strength": -8.64277, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.131845, "energy": 44.436457, "activity_lines": [ 17.986, 22.210849, 23.096593, 21.840593 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.209999, "volume": 251279916, "typical_volume": 194520933.05, "trend": 20.171505, "fair_value": 11.802918, "relative_strength": 4.311064, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.474381, "energy": 38.852165, "activity_lines": [ 17.842666, 21.201818, 22.822187, 21.788389 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }