{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e31d0d7b-9f72-4b99-bb0a-ffd06b5134b4", "symbol": "USAR", "name": "USA Rare Earth, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.959, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.939, "architecture_energy": 58.694, "architecture_maturity": 9.567, "architecture_confidence": 84.497, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.92, "rotation_up": 9.95, "upward_expansion": 11.85, "deceleration": 38.81, "rotation_down": 70.15, "downward_expansion": 87.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.578667, 17.808727, 20.12719, 20.159258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 19.33, "trend_reference": 20.232167, "distance_from_trend": -0.044591, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.644459, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.416692, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.337913, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.114927, "excess_performance": -0.30238, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044591, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071874, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.416692, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.669113, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113379, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.450962, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.114927, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.662903, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63943173, "relative_activity": 0.895744, "balance": 0.662903, "dry_up": 0.781961, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.232831, "annualized_volatility": 0.905305, "from_high_reference": -0.560482, "from_low_reference": 0.68821 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.232167, "fair_value_reference": 13.644459, "structural_low": 12.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.040336, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.032617, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.040336, "worst_return": 1.040336, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.879832, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.709748, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.879832, "worst_return": 0.879832, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.911765, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.637998, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.911765, "worst_return": 1.911765, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.591597, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.386152, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.591597, "worst_return": 1.591597, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07173, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.167116, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.401617, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 1.368067, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": 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} ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }