{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e32215d8-c43b-4af8-afee-418e24af37fb", "symbol": "603992", "name": "Xiamen Solex High-tech Industries Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.123, "architecture_energy": 86.127, "architecture_maturity": 44.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.576, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.36, "rotation_up": 8.37, "upward_expansion": 21.63, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 77.07, "downward_expansion": 94.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.075334, 25.760546, 28.31822, 30.043996 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.67, "trend_reference": 32.842245, "distance_from_trend": -0.279282, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.609453, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046907, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.465364, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.443402, "excess_performance": -0.400198, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.279282, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046266, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.046907, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.508501, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.254654, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.260468, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.443402, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.620874, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15924533, "relative_activity": 0.800315, "balance": 0.620874, "dry_up": 0.851893, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137378, "annualized_volatility": 0.631492, "from_high_reference": -0.504168, "from_low_reference": 0.126606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.842245, "fair_value_reference": 22.609453, "structural_low": 21.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.008672, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.000218, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.311632, "worst_return": -0.329054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.018804, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.064789, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.06422, "worst_return": -0.117782, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.037945, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.13427, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.132372, "worst_return": -0.139793, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 50.784341, "activity_lines": [ 30.229334, 30.864242, 31.649389, 33.020826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.469999, "volume": 20157215, "typical_volume": 23722423.9, "trend": 34.579067, "fair_value": 22.437742, "relative_strength": -26.623209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.840057, "energy": 83.314003, "activity_lines": [ 27.299333, 29.271537, 30.71146, 32.216813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.620001, "volume": 16904088, "typical_volume": 23169945.3, "trend": 34.024873, "fair_value": 22.486404, "relative_strength": -30.273523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.756355, "energy": 91.327643, "activity_lines": [ 24.800667, 27.721405, 29.762512, 31.380744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.040001, "volume": 14817449, "typical_volume": 21749899.35, "trend": 33.404729, "fair_value": 22.544349, "relative_strength": -25.792868, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.616688, "energy": 88.787575, "activity_lines": [ 23.566667, 26.625455, 28.989708, 30.672043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.67, "volume": 15924533, "typical_volume": 19897838.75, "trend": 32.842245, "fair_value": 22.609453, "relative_strength": -25.465364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.122887, "energy": 86.126692, "activity_lines": [ 23.075334, 25.760546, 28.31822, 30.043996 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }