{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e32599e4-6eae-4fd0-81b6-f340d05dbab4", "symbol": "5EV", "name": "Hosen Group Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.912, "architecture_energy": 34.771, "architecture_maturity": 18.612, "architecture_confidence": 84.049, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.11, "rotation_up": 22.42, "upward_expansion": 9.43, "deceleration": 38.72, "rotation_down": 43.83, "downward_expansion": 71.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0644, 0.064545, 0.06468, 0.064881 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.063, "trend_reference": 0.065126, "distance_from_trend": -0.032646, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.046848, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.344785, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.665643, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.073134, "excess_performance": -0.227969, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032646, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028777, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.344785, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071454, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116656, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183002, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.073134, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.34448, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5000, "relative_activity": 0.023198, "balance": 2.34448, "dry_up": 1.157353, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024314, "annualized_volatility": 0.17578, "from_high_reference": -0.123234, "from_low_reference": 0.380429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.065126, "fair_value_reference": 0.046848, "structural_low": 0.061174, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.023533, "positive_rate": 0.133333, "directional_follow_through": 0.133333, "median_excess_return": -0.037883, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.039202, "worst_return": -0.20482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.070191, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.044403, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.076904, "worst_return": -0.223533, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.091181, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.088888, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.076904, "worst_return": -0.258832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.106645, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.134492, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.150501, "worst_return": -0.292844, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-09-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.180989, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051279, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027011, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024402, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.048777, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.139526, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104164, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066665, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": 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"typical_volume": 297595.0, "trend": 0.065199, "fair_value": 0.046474, "relative_strength": -5.51043, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.754512, "energy": 11.379509, "activity_lines": [ 0.064933, 0.0648, 0.064854, 0.065061 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.065, "volume": 599700, "typical_volume": 280665.0, "trend": 0.065326, "fair_value": 0.046607, "relative_strength": -6.943986, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.672705, "energy": 16.474595, "activity_lines": [ 0.065067, 0.064836, 0.064856, 0.065048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.065, "volume": 160000, "typical_volume": 232825.0, "trend": 0.065259, "fair_value": 0.046734, "relative_strength": -7.687688, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.637427, "energy": 12.914922, "activity_lines": [ 0.065133, 0.064873, 0.064858, 0.065027 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.063, "volume": 5000, "typical_volume": 215535.0, "trend": 0.065126, "fair_value": 0.046848, "relative_strength": -11.665643, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.912433, "energy": 34.770533, "activity_lines": [ 0.0644, 0.064545, 0.06468, 0.064881 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }