{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e328156e-73d3-4cd6-bd29-376165e05eae", "symbol": "PNB", "name": "Punjab National Bank", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 53.084, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 19.486, "architecture_energy": 41.844, "architecture_maturity": 6.141, "architecture_confidence": 55.528, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.09, "rotation_up": 51.44, "upward_expansion": 42.78, "deceleration": 25.47, "rotation_down": 16.93, "downward_expansion": 51.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 111.531998, 109.463831, 107.436045, 108.580643 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 114.809998, "trend_reference": 111.816998, "distance_from_trend": 0.026767, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 104.882143, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.094657, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.957094, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.065446, "excess_performance": -0.021737, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026767, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039414, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.094657, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057294, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.019571, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067106, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.065446, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.023423, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53533837, "relative_activity": 0.694341, "balance": 6.023423, "dry_up": 1.17376, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03543, "annualized_volatility": 0.263968, "from_high_reference": -0.150499, "from_low_reference": 0.199477 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 111.816998, "fair_value_reference": 104.882143, "structural_low": 95.716725, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.000317, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028452, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.171171, "worst_return": -0.144431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.008134, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044966, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.343844, "worst_return": -0.202001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.130597, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.054723, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.539039, "worst_return": -0.186161, "sufficient": true }, { 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22.398853, "activity_lines": [ 106.07, 105.717601, 105.721569, 108.550686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 110.379997, "volume": 190670398, "typical_volume": 80372843.05, "trend": 112.507998, "fair_value": 104.177915, "relative_strength": 1.689, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.902738, "energy": 8.866486, "activity_lines": [ 107.318666, 106.771059, 106.051712, 108.391911 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 112.709999, "volume": 58691239, "typical_volume": 78762686.4, "trend": 112.086665, "fair_value": 104.531302, "relative_strength": 1.032128, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.116555, "energy": 16.194065, "activity_lines": [ 109.236665, 108.044271, 106.646283, 108.404944 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 114.809998, "volume": 53533837, "typical_volume": 77100229.75, "trend": 111.816998, "fair_value": 104.882143, "relative_strength": 1.957094, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 19.48568, "energy": 41.84353, "activity_lines": [ 111.531998, 109.463831, 107.436045, 108.580643 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }