{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e32cdcd1-5be3-4bcc-bf72-e13a8416b1e6", "symbol": "EDMJ", "name": "iShares MSCI Japan CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.21, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.286, "architecture_energy": 39.683, "architecture_maturity": 47.616, "architecture_confidence": 71.044, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.47, "rotation_up": 45.03, "upward_expansion": 73.85, "deceleration": 88.07, "rotation_down": 27.76, "downward_expansion": 9.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.003667, 9.986182, 9.871967, 9.7114 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.3, "trend_reference": 9.528267, "distance_from_trend": 0.080994, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.530735, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.367728, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.180341, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.100663, "excess_performance": 0.017779, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080994, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053988, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.367728, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00652, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031803, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098138, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100663, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.742238, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 96253, "relative_activity": 0.381848, "balance": 0.742238, "dry_up": 0.261961, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030844, "annualized_volatility": 0.237693, "from_high_reference": -0.005792, "from_low_reference": 0.315453 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.528267, "fair_value_reference": 7.530735, "structural_low": 8.457, "invalidation": "A sustained loss 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0.059236, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.026963, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.211182, "worst_return": -0.287263, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111946, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011493, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031691, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022956, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064575, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033388, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003281, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006654, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022316, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": 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"date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.3, "volume": 96253, "typical_volume": 252071.2, "trend": 9.528267, "fair_value": 7.530735, "relative_strength": 3.180341, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.286282, "energy": 39.683159, "activity_lines": [ 10.003667, 9.986182, 9.871967, 9.7114 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }