{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3318052-8da2-46ae-9cd8-0cc7131c632b", "symbol": "IS-FF403", "name": "iShares IV Public Limited Company - iShares Digitalisation UCITS ETF", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.241, "architecture_energy": 66.941, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.379, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.71, "rotation_up": 29.94, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 47.75, "downward_expansion": 73.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.015333, 88.962364, 976.173952, 1536.832538 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 35.84, "trend_reference": 2203.818667, "distance_from_trend": -0.983737, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3169.112564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.988691, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.924258, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.98925, "excess_performance": -1.034988, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983737, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.331325, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.988691, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.901521, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.989243, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.605578, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.98925, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.289595, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 903, "relative_activity": 0.578791, "balance": 1.289595, "dry_up": 0.233151, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 6.806362, "annualized_volatility": 6.316867, "from_high_reference": -0.990927, "from_low_reference": 0.176625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2203.818667, "fair_value_reference": 3169.112564, "structural_low": 30.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.016573, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.04016, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.154967, "worst_return": -0.988995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.041566, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.097942, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.14406, "worst_return": -0.98975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.078742, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.284426, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.138819, "worst_return": -0.991075, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025192, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068401, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040268, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008316, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027173, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", 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362.451818, 1332.246905, 1838.993226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.92, "volume": 79, "typical_volume": 1587.9, "trend": 2319.524, "fair_value": 3185.658462, "relative_strength": -98.979281, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.635066, "energy": 67.556502, "activity_lines": [ 34.495333, 198.240909, 1146.949762, 1684.166989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.84, "volume": 903, "typical_volume": 1560.15, "trend": 2203.818667, "fair_value": 3169.112564, "relative_strength": -98.924258, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.240585, "energy": 66.941104, "activity_lines": [ 35.015333, 88.962364, 976.173952, 1536.832538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }