{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3320844-9cb9-45ff-934e-eec84674d65c", "symbol": "300889", "name": "Shenzhen EXC-LED Technology Co.Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.545, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.884, "architecture_energy": 75.53, "architecture_maturity": 14.772, "architecture_confidence": 80.33, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.96, "rotation_up": 9.27, "upward_expansion": 17.38, "deceleration": 37.28, "rotation_down": 76.22, "downward_expansion": 93.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.25, 20.547637, 21.976381, 22.900452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.0, "trend_reference": 23.586333, "distance_from_trend": -0.109654, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.076342, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.491865, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.6857, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.09755, "excess_performance": -0.10495, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.109654, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015965, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.491865, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.353491, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086857, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091706, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09755, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.045625, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26798148, "relative_activity": 1.146275, "balance": 1.045625, "dry_up": 1.047407, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118498, "annualized_volatility": 0.573924, "from_high_reference": -0.321705, "from_low_reference": 0.538462 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.586333, "fair_value_reference": 14.076342, "structural_low": 15.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.03848, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": 0.028788, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.142289, "worst_return": -0.197995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.010045, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.013414, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.298969, "worst_return": -0.148459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.005971, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.023738, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.414246, "worst_return": -0.236435, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 23.870333, "fair_value": 13.866322, "relative_strength": -6.780151, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.95386, "energy": 43.188895, "activity_lines": [ 22.848667, 23.229636, 23.903476, 24.12314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.030001, "volume": 14023864, "typical_volume": 24904922.7, "trend": 23.844, "fair_value": 13.932786, "relative_strength": -4.247218, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.96017, "energy": 58.108893, "activity_lines": [ 22.107334, 22.806, 23.553714, 23.939893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.790001, "volume": 35000509, "typical_volume": 24409584.7, "trend": 23.711, "fair_value": 13.971296, "relative_strength": -23.909021, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.345571, "energy": 85.2843, "activity_lines": [ 20.190001, 21.66891, 22.830953, 23.484796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.23, "volume": 22124619, "typical_volume": 23488981.45, "trend": 23.576333, "fair_value": 14.011758, "relative_strength": -20.832814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.338381, "energy": 88.689172, "activity_lines": [ 18.895334, 20.706546, 22.200238, 23.066667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.0, "volume": 26798148, "typical_volume": 23378472.3, "trend": 23.586333, "fair_value": 14.076342, "relative_strength": -8.6857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.884073, "energy": 75.530237, "activity_lines": [ 19.25, 20.547637, 21.976381, 22.900452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }