{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3329b5d-5148-4cb0-a736-e22a6dc32f54", "symbol": "NNI", "name": "Nelnet Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.512, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.594, "architecture_energy": 21.626, "architecture_maturity": 27.056, "architecture_confidence": 61.12, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.5, "rotation_up": 43.19, "upward_expansion": 72.49, "deceleration": 60.48, "rotation_down": 21.08, "downward_expansion": 3.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 133.528667, 133.453091, 132.483027, 131.948282 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 131.46, "trend_reference": 131.37468, "distance_from_trend": 0.000649, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 110.93499, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.185018, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.267249, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 9e-05, "excess_performance": -0.125535, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000649, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002564, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.185018, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052555, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102672, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04207, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 9e-05, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.559006, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 806346, "relative_activity": 1.20978, "balance": 2.559006, "dry_up": 0.81611, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043884, "annualized_volatility": 0.248496, "from_high_reference": -0.08716, "from_low_reference": 0.130131 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 131.37468, "fair_value_reference": 110.93499, "structural_low": 116.322799, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.018869, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": 0.004245, "regime_survival": 0.47619, "best_return": 0.113461, "worst_return": -0.074911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.048621, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.00603, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.12223, "worst_return": -0.083555, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.093629, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.108207, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.311626, "worst_return": 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"Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.777717, "energy": 40.54967, "activity_lines": [ 134.025333, 132.546089, 131.921319, 131.54719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 133.36, "volume": 378470, "typical_volume": 693207.25, "trend": 131.388735, "fair_value": 110.43078, "relative_strength": -5.119128, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.89317, "energy": 35.821812, "activity_lines": [ 133.958667, 132.955743, 132.108535, 131.670777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 135.87, "volume": 480591, "typical_volume": 684622.35, "trend": 131.63993, "fair_value": 110.684351, "relative_strength": -4.223652, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.417518, "energy": 35.18335, "activity_lines": [ 134.527333, 133.671223, 132.520926, 131.959891 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 131.46, "volume": 806346, "typical_volume": 666522.65, "trend": 131.37468, "fair_value": 110.93499, "relative_strength": -10.267249, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.59417, "energy": 21.625893, "activity_lines": [ 133.528667, 133.453091, 132.483027, 131.948282 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }