{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e334ca31-a06e-4a5c-b69e-626331406673", "symbol": "2382", "name": "ADES Holding Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.836, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.027, "architecture_energy": 43.585, "architecture_maturity": 4.224, "architecture_confidence": 58.635, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.29, "rotation_up": 17.03, "upward_expansion": 24.94, "deceleration": 50.08, "rotation_down": 62.06, "downward_expansion": 47.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.687333, 18.164364, 18.594232, 18.429229 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.690001, "trend_reference": 18.195771, "distance_from_trend": -0.027796, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.571218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.00676, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.709397, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.045747, "excess_performance": -0.013918, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027796, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028714, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.00676, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093776, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.037094, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170765, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045747, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.837934, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7802342, "relative_activity": 0.967092, "balance": 1.837934, "dry_up": 0.720501, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056181, "annualized_volatility": 0.301927, "from_high_reference": -0.112839, "from_low_reference": 0.25631 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.195771, "fair_value_reference": 17.571218, "structural_low": 15.162125, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017117, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056225, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.05707, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084602, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": 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"gate": "up", "direction": -0.221141, "energy": 7.516272, "activity_lines": [ 18.557334, 18.781091, 18.854995, 18.559453 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.639999, "volume": 4999603, "typical_volume": 7776205.35, "trend": 18.164484, "fair_value": 17.570394, "relative_strength": 0.240219, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.357599, "energy": 42.71426, "activity_lines": [ 17.877333, 18.349637, 18.675218, 18.459841 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.690001, "volume": 7802342, "typical_volume": 8067840.95, "trend": 18.195771, "fair_value": 17.571218, "relative_strength": 3.709397, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.026547, "energy": 43.585031, "activity_lines": [ 17.687333, 18.164364, 18.594232, 18.429229 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }