{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3354962-4dee-421c-8573-fe9c5349c374", "symbol": "002587", "name": "Shenzhen AOTO Electronics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.656, "architecture_energy": 82.019, "architecture_maturity": 18.241, "architecture_confidence": 83.813, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.93, "rotation_up": 8.19, "upward_expansion": 19.44, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 79.51, "downward_expansion": 95.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.388667, 5.838, 6.260316, 6.424352 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.6, "trend_reference": 6.611649, "distance_from_trend": -0.15301, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.285883, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.109115, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.907937, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.170687, "excess_performance": -0.178087, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15301, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016131, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.109115, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250652, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.169079, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071198, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.170687, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.479939, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85972449, "relative_activity": 0.853215, "balance": 0.479939, "dry_up": 0.891863, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106496, "annualized_volatility": 0.442817, "from_high_reference": -0.250335, "from_low_reference": 0.157025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.611649, "fair_value_reference": 6.285883, "structural_low": 4.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.106329, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": 0.07129, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.344195, "worst_return": -0.110606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.240099, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.216466, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.521519, "worst_return": 0.058864, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.204233, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.231877, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.524051, "worst_return": -0.064356, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.472607, "energy": 70.479299, "activity_lines": [ 6.134667, 6.474783, 6.628677, 6.691421 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.03, "volume": 86368148, "typical_volume": 106102121.05, "trend": 6.69418, "fair_value": 6.303201, "relative_strength": -23.667056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.729746, "energy": 84.015199, "activity_lines": [ 5.653333, 6.176385, 6.469868, 6.58067 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.32, "volume": 78971033, "typical_volume": 102589023.1, "trend": 6.648744, "fair_value": 6.291918, "relative_strength": -17.45207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.394799, "energy": 84.637533, "activity_lines": [ 5.407333, 5.966909, 6.347497, 6.492013 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.6, "volume": 85972449, "typical_volume": 100762880.0, "trend": 6.611649, "fair_value": 6.285883, "relative_strength": -16.907937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.655754, "energy": 82.018737, "activity_lines": [ 5.388667, 5.838, 6.260316, 6.424352 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }