{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3481ccf-1e5d-4bc7-8200-32511ce3e868", "symbol": "BWAY", "name": "Brainsway Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.694, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.299, "architecture_energy": 29.569, "architecture_maturity": 26.31, "architecture_confidence": 86.046, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.25, "rotation_up": 51.98, "upward_expansion": 75.57, "deceleration": 57.16, "rotation_down": 17.39, "downward_expansion": 2.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.523333, 15.308909, 15.289619, 14.892505 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.5, "trend_reference": 14.122167, "distance_from_trend": 0.097565, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.441506, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.406269, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.201894, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.423324, "excess_performance": 0.235871, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097565, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.171907, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.406269, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.850034, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.182019, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.379585, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.423324, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.270048, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 518381, "relative_activity": 0.80371, "balance": 1.270048, "dry_up": 1.111518, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099218, "annualized_volatility": 0.42959, "from_high_reference": -0.106752, "from_low_reference": 1.633815 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.122167, "fair_value_reference": 6.441506, "structural_low": 10.735, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.029304, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.027568, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.587379, "worst_return": -0.168574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.170831, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.180239, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.410194, "worst_return": -0.146722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.425443, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.30525, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.852041, "worst_return": -0.188345, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 1.121577, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.921679, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.48301, "worst_return": -0.466181, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.253704, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.321888, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.170865, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057088, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.113978, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076004, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026095, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000917, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.292517, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"activity_lines": [ 14.927333, 14.921818, 15.006857, 14.396763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.73, "volume": 520395, "typical_volume": 676035.45, "trend": 13.595, "fair_value": 6.166827, "relative_strength": 29.664467, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.489741, "energy": 26.63265, "activity_lines": [ 15.220667, 15.030364, 15.114524, 14.549935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.97, "volume": 1075040, "typical_volume": 698729.35, "trend": 13.8045, "fair_value": 6.261538, "relative_strength": 31.896212, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.100326, "energy": 33.214764, "activity_lines": [ 15.520667, 15.208727, 15.225238, 14.703161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.23, "volume": 753835, "typical_volume": 664385.55, "trend": 13.990667, "fair_value": 6.351571, "relative_strength": 23.520586, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.843109, "energy": 28.159805, "activity_lines": [ 15.502, 15.235455, 15.24819, 14.795129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.5, "volume": 518381, "typical_volume": 644985.5, "trend": 14.122167, "fair_value": 6.441506, "relative_strength": 18.201894, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.298629, "energy": 29.568953, "activity_lines": [ 15.523333, 15.308909, 15.289619, 14.892505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }