{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3488843-3bdd-4270-85e1-2941298e49f7", "symbol": "600575", "name": "Huaihe Energy (Group) Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.709, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.406, "architecture_energy": 32.185, "architecture_maturity": 27.655, "architecture_confidence": 68.005, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.17, "rotation_up": 21.21, "upward_expansion": 8.07, "deceleration": 58.9, "rotation_down": 45.69, "downward_expansion": 70.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.335333, 3.340795, 3.468317, 3.53306 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.37, "trend_reference": 3.572655, "distance_from_trend": -0.056724, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.308307, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.018648, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.680868, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.01462, "excess_performance": 0.028584, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056724, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018015, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.018648, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083964, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046809, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050864, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01462, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.375884, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 302384579, "relative_activity": 0.999439, "balance": 1.375884, "dry_up": 1.064483, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089648, "annualized_volatility": 0.339672, "from_high_reference": -0.214452, "from_low_reference": 0.123333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.572655, "fair_value_reference": 3.308307, "structural_low": 3.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.006098, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.00437, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.127168, "worst_return": -0.086642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011905, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.010261, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.194175, "worst_return": -0.083033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.097738, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.018327, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.672562, "worst_return": -0.090253, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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3.601988, "fair_value": 3.286545, "relative_strength": -12.437564, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.673078, "energy": 57.318156, "activity_lines": [ 3.299333, 3.507169, 3.584358, 3.60267 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.16, "volume": 281056526, "typical_volume": 310573734.95, "trend": 3.587322, "fair_value": 3.290899, "relative_strength": -7.231959, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.173288, "energy": 76.185739, "activity_lines": [ 3.204667, 3.42819, 3.536741, 3.574155 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.24, "volume": 360729083, "typical_volume": 312699618.65, "trend": 3.575988, "fair_value": 3.295828, "relative_strength": -5.82127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.783726, "energy": 73.738617, "activity_lines": [ 3.192, 3.370858, 3.499314, 3.551747 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.49, "volume": 344085743, "typical_volume": 311675722.35, "trend": 3.573655, "fair_value": 3.302421, "relative_strength": 1.199967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.610199, "energy": 48.464652, "activity_lines": [ 3.29, 3.363935, 3.488459, 3.546199 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.37, "volume": 302384579, "typical_volume": 302554351.1, "trend": 3.572655, "fair_value": 3.308307, "relative_strength": -4.680868, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.405617, "energy": 32.184873, "activity_lines": [ 3.335333, 3.340795, 3.468317, 3.53306 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }