{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e34acadd-9bab-484e-896d-4cfe27d4a36c", "symbol": "RIC", "name": "Richards Group Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 59.311, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.086, "architecture_energy": 81.866, "architecture_maturity": 8.872, "architecture_confidence": 61.076, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.93, "rotation_up": 80.86, "upward_expansion": 93.49, "deceleration": 41.85, "rotation_down": 11.05, "downward_expansion": 20.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.903017, 29.241467, 28.660166, 28.419169 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.6, "trend_reference": 28.179404, "distance_from_trend": 0.085899, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.990545, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055517, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.872251, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.094399, "excess_performance": -0.026023, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085899, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004076, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055517, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10625, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068723, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106678, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094399, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.218241, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 166300, "relative_activity": 1.634639, "balance": 1.218241, "dry_up": 0.70084, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033517, "annualized_volatility": 0.169659, "from_high_reference": -0.095776, "from_low_reference": 0.176349 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.179404, "fair_value_reference": 28.990545, "structural_low": 26.253121, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.023183, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.03933, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.014157, "worst_return": -0.090774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.004531, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.073637, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.047423, "worst_return": -0.08909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.09182, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.237335, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.045892, "worst_return": -0.152008, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011151, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040527, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084578, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040323, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004779, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.102453, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 28.664192, "volume": 36200, "typical_volume": 94995.0, "trend": 28.134953, "fair_value": 28.980018, "relative_strength": -11.711736, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.129633, "energy": 25.97502, "activity_lines": [ 28.362512, 28.140707, 28.04865, 28.01981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.790035, "volume": 30200, "typical_volume": 94365.0, "trend": 28.136931, "fair_value": 28.982, "relative_strength": -7.940438, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.16136, "energy": 49.621802, "activity_lines": [ 28.865572, 28.480136, 28.224426, 28.126589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.219999, "volume": 52500, "typical_volume": 95420.0, "trend": 28.148076, "fair_value": 28.984269, "relative_strength": -5.617662, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.869917, "energy": 72.578516, "activity_lines": [ 29.405306, 28.85293, 28.430549, 28.26098 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.6, "volume": 166300, "typical_volume": 101735.0, "trend": 28.179404, "fair_value": 28.990545, "relative_strength": -6.872251, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.085769, "energy": 81.865686, "activity_lines": [ 29.903017, 29.241467, 28.660166, 28.419169 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }