{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e350677e-37e1-40fd-b4de-62519c49fc9c", "symbol": "600795", "name": "GD Power Development Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.338, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.748, "architecture_energy": 24.223, "architecture_maturity": 25.205, "architecture_confidence": 61.537, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.14, "rotation_up": 58.63, "upward_expansion": 39.64, "deceleration": 43.46, "rotation_down": 17.22, "downward_expansion": 16.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.941933, 4.829476, 4.83936, 4.848194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.98, "trend_reference": 4.845382, "distance_from_trend": 0.027783, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.56961, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.089809, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.582515, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.075594, "excess_performance": 0.118798, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027783, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047809, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.089809, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005199, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005825, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094942, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075594, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.818192, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 542506993, "relative_activity": 0.759673, "balance": 1.818192, "dry_up": 1.024498, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046614, "annualized_volatility": 0.210809, "from_high_reference": -0.175497, "from_low_reference": 0.127626 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.845382, "fair_value_reference": 4.56961, "structural_low": 4.502554, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.003876, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001963, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.091255, "worst_return": -0.116296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.087485, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.003504, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.176152, "worst_return": -0.077164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.16823, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.121277, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.403042, "worst_return": -0.06846, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008734, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018728, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010755, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002092, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028078, "active": false }, { 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"close": 4.75, "volume": 657836196, "typical_volume": 795225411.6, "trend": 4.902382, "fair_value": 4.538753, "relative_strength": 0.501039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.138346, "energy": 61.195151, "activity_lines": [ 4.644553, 4.725919, 4.797286, 4.824354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.93, "volume": 989293935, "typical_volume": 773416001.65, "trend": 4.870715, "fair_value": 4.548239, "relative_strength": 2.960652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.918786, "energy": 21.549692, "activity_lines": [ 4.747896, 4.749529, 4.804469, 4.826135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.08, "volume": 736869395, "typical_volume": 736231082.1, "trend": 4.847382, "fair_value": 4.558862, "relative_strength": 5.503233, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.41594, "energy": 15.225097, "activity_lines": [ 4.879212, 4.80023, 4.826653, 4.839638 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.98, "volume": 542506993, "typical_volume": 714131899.85, "trend": 4.845382, "fair_value": 4.56961, "relative_strength": 0.582515, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.748262, "energy": 24.223281, "activity_lines": [ 4.941933, 4.829476, 4.83936, 4.848194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }