{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3535c93-577a-4442-9726-fb16765063e2", "symbol": "XBIT", "name": "XBiotech Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.472, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.328, "architecture_energy": 52.554, "architecture_maturity": 17.719, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.73, "rotation_up": 15.74, "upward_expansion": 10.16, "deceleration": 41.34, "rotation_down": 62.31, "downward_expansion": 85.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.260667, 2.279273, 2.332286, 2.349118 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.27, "trend_reference": 2.380667, "distance_from_trend": -0.046486, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.241923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.464865, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.391646, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.042194, "excess_performance": -0.229648, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046486, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018417, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.464865, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011509, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203916, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018305, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042194, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.242797, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 101864, "relative_activity": 0.682198, "balance": 0.242797, "dry_up": 1.241472, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043623, "annualized_volatility": 0.193251, "from_high_reference": -0.371191, "from_low_reference": 0.086124 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.380667, "fair_value_reference": 4.241923, "structural_low": 2.175, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.032888, "positive_rate": 0.371429, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.012943, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.347395, "worst_return": -0.279639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.099557, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.151041, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.492386, "worst_return": -0.373349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.137584, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.253973, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.109137, "worst_return": -0.560624, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117881, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065886, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021053, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.253927, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09589, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"typical_volume": 159265.25, "trend": 2.409667, "fair_value": 4.316731, "relative_strength": -22.867426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.889087, "energy": 53.269863, "activity_lines": [ 2.306667, 2.339091, 2.374905, 2.385075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.27, "volume": 207401, "typical_volume": 162099.45, "trend": 2.402, "fair_value": 4.295833, "relative_strength": -19.440916, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.564616, "energy": 54.08009, "activity_lines": [ 2.292, 2.320727, 2.364952, 2.376065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.27, "volume": 305441, "typical_volume": 169098.05, "trend": 2.395333, "fair_value": 4.277885, "relative_strength": -17.441203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.369964, "energy": 53.458166, "activity_lines": [ 2.282, 2.305818, 2.354952, 2.367548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.23, "volume": 126787, "typical_volume": 170375.45, "trend": 2.390333, "fair_value": 4.26, "relative_strength": -18.58998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.65642, "energy": 58.79928, "activity_lines": [ 2.261333, 2.287091, 2.341524, 2.356882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.27, "volume": 101864, "typical_volume": 149317.25, "trend": 2.380667, "fair_value": 4.241923, "relative_strength": -20.391646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.32751, "energy": 52.553703, "activity_lines": [ 2.260667, 2.279273, 2.332286, 2.349118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }