{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e35da661-8928-4059-8372-ff1ff9aecbf2", "symbol": "MI6", "name": "Minerals 260 Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.635, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.272, "architecture_energy": 27.7, "architecture_maturity": 12.701, "architecture_confidence": 46.989, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.63, "rotation_up": 17.78, "upward_expansion": 19.32, "deceleration": 56.25, "rotation_down": 60.16, "downward_expansion": 44.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.653667, 0.693455, 0.739714, 0.721484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.76, "trend_reference": 0.670333, "distance_from_trend": 0.133764, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.29758, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.553934, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 41.775997, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.948718, "excess_performance": 0.885012, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.133764, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.220637, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.553934, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.246089, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.41776, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.855944, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.948718, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.143723, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74529463, "relative_activity": 1.629963, "balance": 1.143723, "dry_up": 1.302423, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16498, "annualized_volatility": 0.95763, "from_high_reference": -0.187166, "from_low_reference": 5.608696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.670333, "fair_value_reference": 0.29758, "structural_low": 0.39, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.112458, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.090909, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.311688, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.387115, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.311688, "worst_return": -0.311688, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.571429, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.668027, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.571429, "worst_return": -0.571429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.642857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.03876, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026087, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.475, "volume": 1445004, "typical_volume": 1818409.85, "trend": 0.472333, "fair_value": 0.439072, "relative_strength": 13.620845, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"gate": "up", "direction": -13.294862, "energy": 26.30676, "activity_lines": [ 0.684333, 0.752727, 0.763714, 0.720624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.625, "volume": 58823686, "typical_volume": 46979233.4, "trend": 0.654167, "fair_value": 0.296266, "relative_strength": 28.300347, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.417762, "energy": 35.850397, "activity_lines": [ 0.643667, 0.722818, 0.752429, 0.71914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.59, "volume": 52237227, "typical_volume": 47116160.35, "trend": 0.6595, "fair_value": 0.296106, "relative_strength": 16.199395, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.561288, "energy": 40.900605, "activity_lines": [ 0.611667, 0.690364, 0.737905, 0.715 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.76, "volume": 74529463, "typical_volume": 45724648.65, "trend": 0.670333, "fair_value": 0.29758, "relative_strength": 41.775997, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.272, "energy": 27.700372, "activity_lines": [ 0.653667, 0.693455, 0.739714, 0.721484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }