{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e36240d4-214e-403e-9cae-da39d7c11098", "symbol": "AIRG", "name": "Airgain Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_to_3_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 2 \u2192 3 watch", "confidence": 49.656, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.657, "architecture_energy": 41.191, "architecture_maturity": 40.368, "architecture_confidence": 74.627, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.8, "rotation_up": 14.94, "upward_expansion": 26.43, "deceleration": 53.26, "rotation_down": 65.49, "downward_expansion": 47.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.758667, 5.983273, 6.313214, 6.132419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.53, "trend_reference": 5.7745, "distance_from_trend": -0.042341, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.291859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045001, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.776676, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.133197, "excess_performance": -0.054257, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042341, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144334, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.045001, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.327447, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037767, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.342069, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133197, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.173442, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 372182, "relative_activity": 0.80863, "balance": 0.173442, "dry_up": 0.875839, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11921, "annualized_volatility": 0.541912, "from_high_reference": -0.277879, "from_low_reference": 0.843333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.7745, "fair_value_reference": 5.291859, "structural_low": 3.75, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.067545, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.050439, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.153774, "worst_return": -0.22049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.090683, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.068747, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.284112, "worst_return": -0.465479, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.120092, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.032009, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.792523, "worst_return": -0.552339, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013158, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046729, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.385937, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.22049, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.243034, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005822, "active": 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5.263526, "relative_strength": 4.221805, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.370858, "energy": 19.84253, "activity_lines": [ 6.264, 6.517, 6.471024, 6.091602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.99, "volume": 438671, "typical_volume": 461822.2, "trend": 5.6055, "fair_value": 5.271026, "relative_strength": 8.375447, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.722275, "energy": 16.71178, "activity_lines": [ 6.12, 6.389091, 6.463, 6.120645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.86, "volume": 409214, "typical_volume": 464298.8, "trend": 5.6675, "fair_value": 5.278718, "relative_strength": 7.83917, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.035398, "energy": 16.623402, "activity_lines": [ 5.993333, 6.258273, 6.434071, 6.137065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.79, "volume": 392395, "typical_volume": 477012.85, "trend": 5.7245, "fair_value": 5.284423, "relative_strength": 5.859862, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.239599, "energy": 18.92933, "activity_lines": [ 5.904667, 6.132545, 6.390238, 6.144968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.53, "volume": 372182, "typical_volume": 460262.2, "trend": 5.7745, "fair_value": 5.291859, "relative_strength": -3.776676, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.656811, "energy": 41.190836, "activity_lines": [ 5.758667, 5.983273, 6.313214, 6.132419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }