{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e368b323-299b-41eb-bd46-efb422c7b29f", "symbol": "ROS", "name": "Rosenbauer International AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.276, "architecture_energy": 53.168, "architecture_maturity": 27.178, "architecture_confidence": 72.679, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.15, "rotation_up": 57.18, "upward_expansion": 78.22, "deceleration": 67.16, "rotation_down": 20.92, "downward_expansion": 7.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.800001, 61.752728, 60.759048, 58.318925 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 64.400002, "trend_reference": 55.076667, "distance_from_trend": 0.169279, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.344231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.596263, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.524259, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.364407, "excess_performance": 0.19016, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.169279, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105957, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.596263, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006859, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.035243, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044545, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.364407, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.538542, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43269, "relative_activity": 3.126723, "balance": 5.538542, "dry_up": 1.611795, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052556, "annualized_volatility": 0.246775, "from_high_reference": -0.05848, "from_low_reference": 0.526066 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.076667, "fair_value_reference": 40.344231, "structural_low": 44.400002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.004329, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.019407, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.232759, "worst_return": -0.142191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.052632, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.000633, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.369637, "worst_return": -0.154217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.057736, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009384, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.194805, "worst_return": -0.261278, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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11790.0, "trend": 53.403334, "fair_value": 39.691026, "relative_strength": 1.208803, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.31037, "energy": 33.17907, "activity_lines": [ 59.986666, 60.64, 58.955238, 56.516344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 62.400002, "volume": 8547, "typical_volume": 11394.2, "trend": 53.953334, "fair_value": 39.901282, "relative_strength": 2.975423, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.875829, "energy": 42.237987, "activity_lines": [ 60.853333, 60.909091, 59.541905, 57.096774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 63.0, "volume": 33250, "typical_volume": 12301.65, "trend": 54.503334, "fair_value": 40.119872, "relative_strength": 4.197063, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.022956, "energy": 48.101784, "activity_lines": [ 61.72, 61.207273, 60.116667, 57.68043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 64.400002, "volume": 43269, "typical_volume": 13838.45, "trend": 55.076667, "fair_value": 40.344231, "relative_strength": 3.524259, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.275721, "energy": 53.167666, "activity_lines": [ 62.800001, 61.752728, 60.759048, 58.318925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }