{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e36bc96e-1037-45f0-b9d6-1eea488c7371", "symbol": "EVGN", "name": "Evogene", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.64, "architecture_energy": 23.885, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.055, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.06, "rotation_up": 26.96, "upward_expansion": 15.4, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 29.36, "downward_expansion": 63.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.552133, 0.529476, 0.586479, 0.647108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.6001, "trend_reference": 0.740912, "distance_from_trend": -0.190052, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.209239, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.813009, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.433354, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.444352, "excess_performance": -0.631805, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.190052, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20506, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.813009, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005098, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.444334, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006588, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.444352, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.612459, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1879176, "relative_activity": 0.338617, "balance": 0.612459, "dry_up": 0.258649, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.218143, "annualized_volatility": 0.85598, "from_high_reference": -0.599933, "from_low_reference": 0.621892 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.740912, "fair_value_reference": 3.209239, "structural_low": 0.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.07, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.622222, "median_excess_return": -0.082165, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.615686, "worst_return": -0.304124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.208075, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.209622, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 1.408395, "worst_return": -0.606396, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.327232, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.291345, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.44, "worst_return": -0.74631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.269332, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085119, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.294413, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.193548, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.174757, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.31163, 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"typical_volume": 5404414.05, "trend": 0.809322, "fair_value": 3.448684, "relative_strength": -55.975814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.317291, "energy": 85.104447, "activity_lines": [ 0.471973, 0.536531, 0.632389, 0.705224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.629, "volume": 2513176, "typical_volume": 5517645.0, "trend": 0.796292, "fair_value": 3.38028, "relative_strength": -42.564961, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.980837, "energy": 54.475549, "activity_lines": [ 0.519, 0.542754, 0.625607, 0.69359 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.5425, "volume": 966241, "typical_volume": 5546330.5, "trend": 0.779875, "fair_value": 3.317091, "relative_strength": -48.702357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.375188, "energy": 42.646562, "activity_lines": [ 0.534187, 0.53548, 0.611773, 0.677216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.471, "volume": 382947, "typical_volume": 5489252.45, "trend": 0.757908, "fair_value": 3.257738, "relative_strength": -54.911468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.585982, "energy": 37.21771, "activity_lines": [ 0.52438, 0.51866, 0.592201, 0.657289 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6001, "volume": 1879176, "typical_volume": 5549558.15, "trend": 0.740912, "fair_value": 3.209239, "relative_strength": -44.433354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.640013, "energy": 23.884881, "activity_lines": [ 0.552133, 0.529476, 0.586479, 0.647108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }