{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e36d879f-ce4e-40c8-8924-4ff2942f2593", "symbol": "8521", "name": "WebX International Holdings Company Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.105, "architecture_energy": 24.454, "architecture_maturity": 81.185, "architecture_confidence": 59.605, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.28, "rotation_up": 21.8, "upward_expansion": 13.08, "deceleration": 60.78, "rotation_down": 37.77, "downward_expansion": 60.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.691333, 0.689545, 0.716167, 0.737387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.65, "trend_reference": 0.7475, "distance_from_trend": -0.130435, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.740891, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.122678, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.914987, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.083333, "excess_performance": 0.098624, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130435, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178571, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.122678, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.267296, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.34915, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117467, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.814815, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 215000, "relative_activity": 1.094148, "balance": 0.814815, "dry_up": 0.445293, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.155621, "annualized_volatility": 0.686999, "from_high_reference": -0.601227, "from_low_reference": 0.12069 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.7475, "fair_value_reference": 0.740891, "structural_low": 0.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.027876, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.423077, "median_excess_return": 0.04249, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 1.904762, "worst_return": -0.308943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.117647, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.111497, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.979167, "worst_return": -0.218978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.014706, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.048287, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 3.859155, "worst_return": -0.213235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 1.208333, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.983651, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 3.058824, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138462, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.564103, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.146067, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.263889, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011364, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.173913, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.674699, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.16875, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.174419, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-08-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.044118, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 0.244, "volume": 2910000, "typical_volume": 5990250.0, "trend": 0.142267, "fair_value": 0.140141, "relative_strength": 101.679668, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"relative_strength": -31.902119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.594133, "energy": 46.027106, "activity_lines": [ 0.681333, 0.702182, 0.743143, 0.755613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.71, "volume": 15000, "typical_volume": 231500.0, "trend": 0.770667, "fair_value": 0.733808, "relative_strength": -31.81868, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.194315, "energy": 32.877248, "activity_lines": [ 0.69, 0.699091, 0.737095, 0.750559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.69, "volume": 90000, "typical_volume": 227500.0, "trend": 0.756333, "fair_value": 0.735891, "relative_strength": -32.240233, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.180817, "energy": 21.352088, "activity_lines": [ 0.694667, 0.694, 0.729524, 0.745355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 0.735, "volume": 30000, "typical_volume": 213750.0, "trend": 0.752167, "fair_value": 0.738359, "relative_strength": -24.99915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.229586, "energy": 18.966096, "activity_lines": [ 0.711667, 0.699091, 0.726524, 0.743978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 0.65, "volume": 215000, "typical_volume": 196500.0, "trend": 0.7475, "fair_value": 0.740891, "relative_strength": -34.914987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.105122, "energy": 24.454495, "activity_lines": [ 0.691333, 0.689545, 0.716167, 0.737387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }