{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e37ee6f9-a573-4761-9e3a-b982ada0c743", "symbol": "B28", "name": "Bonvests Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.454, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.944, "architecture_energy": 13.629, "architecture_maturity": 12.259, "architecture_confidence": 65.228, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.25, "rotation_up": 39.0, "upward_expansion": 61.01, "deceleration": 76.28, "rotation_down": 25.79, "downward_expansion": 18.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.969, 0.967545, 0.969678, 0.96707 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.98, "trend_reference": 0.963508, "distance_from_trend": 0.017117, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.937041, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045846, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.018748, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.017461, "excess_performance": -0.137374, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017117, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006143, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.045846, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010669, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150187, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075657, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017461, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.858501, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 120200, "relative_activity": 1.590999, "balance": 3.858501, "dry_up": 1.090668, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02865, "annualized_volatility": 0.137196, "from_high_reference": -0.055215, "from_low_reference": 0.102249 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.963508, "fair_value_reference": 0.937041, "structural_low": 0.889091, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.003706, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005727, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.076922, "worst_return": -0.046875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.005209, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.028953, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.076086, "worst_return": -0.078125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.022317, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.106173, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.059782, "worst_return": -0.047619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.065217, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.204571, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.073649, "worst_return": -0.087671, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030151, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.003404, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.026179, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043479, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046875, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01087, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.081081, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035175, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -15.018748, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.944302, "energy": 13.629, "activity_lines": [ 0.969, 0.967545, 0.969678, 0.96707 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }