{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e38bd13b-c73d-4e09-ad90-3a4276210c0a", "symbol": "NEO-B", "name": "Neovici Holding AB ser. B", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.731, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.496, "architecture_energy": 58.55, "architecture_maturity": 18.315, "architecture_confidence": 65.538, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.98, "rotation_up": 17.21, "upward_expansion": 20.82, "deceleration": 43.81, "rotation_down": 72.07, "downward_expansion": 64.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.626, 3.927636, 4.315857, 4.416097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 3.61, "trend_reference": 4.266833, "distance_from_trend": -0.153939, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.793909, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.376932, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.614811, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.805, "excess_performance": 0.743506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153939, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.194968, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.376932, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123781, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036148, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063528, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.805, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.63584, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36466, "relative_activity": 0.501758, "balance": 0.63584, "dry_up": 1.090013, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.192627, "annualized_volatility": 1.387795, "from_high_reference": -0.529948, "from_low_reference": 1.776923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.266833, "fair_value_reference": 5.793909, "structural_low": 2.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022388, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.665738, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.39886, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018256, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.370968, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019774, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-07-05", "close": 14.2, "volume": 384754, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-12", "close": 13.5, "volume": 131285, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-19", 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"energy": 34.370392, "activity_lines": [ 4.128667, 4.508182, 4.63319, 4.542538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.54, "volume": 168850, "typical_volume": 97671.7, "trend": 4.1775, "fair_value": 5.836019, "relative_strength": -3.640675, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.434875, "energy": 51.49656, "activity_lines": [ 3.891333, 4.288364, 4.51381, 4.503258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.43, "volume": 49776, "typical_volume": 83411.15, "trend": 4.2135, "fair_value": 5.813945, "relative_strength": -7.220005, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.062771, "energy": 62.503336, "activity_lines": [ 3.708, 4.080182, 4.400524, 4.455032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.61, "volume": 36466, "typical_volume": 72676.45, "trend": 4.266833, "fair_value": 5.793909, "relative_strength": -3.614811, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.495541, "energy": 58.549675, "activity_lines": [ 3.626, 3.927636, 4.315857, 4.416097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }