{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e38f515f-465a-42f9-adcb-d83356a38ce7", "symbol": "8170", "name": "Al-Etihad Cooperative Insurance Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.455, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.133, "architecture_energy": 20.253, "architecture_maturity": 11.284, "architecture_confidence": 38.577, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.99, "rotation_up": 51.31, "upward_expansion": 39.81, "deceleration": 36.67, "rotation_down": 18.5, "downward_expansion": 14.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.959333, 6.877636, 6.611714, 6.633011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.76, "trend_reference": 6.832333, "distance_from_trend": -0.010587, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.74217, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.508084, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.728292, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.137755, "excess_performance": -0.105926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010587, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087806, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.508084, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069243, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157283, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.219785, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137755, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.76588, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8953194, "relative_activity": 4.262317, "balance": 0.76588, "dry_up": 2.809453, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099795, "annualized_volatility": 0.338889, "from_high_reference": -0.430976, "from_low_reference": 0.190141 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.832333, "fair_value_reference": 13.74217, "structural_low": 5.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.032787, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.06459, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.252546, "worst_return": -0.187956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.072412, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018076, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.14071, "worst_return": -0.243143, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.067654, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.030969, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.218579, "worst_return": -0.303832, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.205292, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002247, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003421, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045964, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056583, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.055939, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", 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-19.053324, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.214605, "energy": 16.373674, "activity_lines": [ 6.698667, 6.478727, 6.394429, 6.603312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.39, "volume": 6701542, "typical_volume": 1372887.05, "trend": 6.94, "fair_value": 13.889624, "relative_strength": -10.337555, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.812882, "energy": 35.906407, "activity_lines": [ 6.951333, 6.676182, 6.482095, 6.630452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.0, "volume": 4637385, "typical_volume": 1580610.5, "trend": 6.909, "fair_value": 13.839882, "relative_strength": -14.544908, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.413154, "energy": 30.924824, "activity_lines": [ 7.025333, 6.779273, 6.532, 6.634323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.0, "volume": 3313422, "typical_volume": 1715749.3, "trend": 6.871333, "fair_value": 13.792062, "relative_strength": -11.724228, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.077846, "energy": 34.739242, "activity_lines": [ 7.054667, 6.860909, 6.58319, 6.640194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.76, "volume": 8953194, "typical_volume": 2100546.2, "trend": 6.832333, "fair_value": 13.74217, "relative_strength": -15.728292, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.133348, "energy": 20.253143, "activity_lines": [ 6.959333, 6.877636, 6.611714, 6.633011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }