{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e38f54dc-ef95-41e1-9180-54cacb9fa32c",
    "symbol": "2314",
    "name": "Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing Limited",
    "exchange": "HKG",
    "country": "HK",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-09-04",
    "benchmark": "^HSI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 59.429,
    "architecture_energy": 46.754,
    "architecture_maturity": 29.684,
    "architecture_confidence": 65.355,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 24.99,
        "rotation_up": 53.91,
        "upward_expansion": 77.94,
        "deceleration": 70.66,
        "rotation_down": 19.86,
        "downward_expansion": 6.94
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        3.884533,
        3.849236,
        3.567809,
        3.483897
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 3.735,
    "trend_reference": 3.461739,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.078938,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 2.501533,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.493084,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 15.782522,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.038108,
    "excess_performance": 0.042239,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.078938,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.065836,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.493084,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.250655,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.157825,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.126683,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.038108,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.512768,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 22604000,
      "relative_activity": 1.254092,
      "balance": 0.512768,
      "dry_up": 1.634364,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 5
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.08432,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.368511,
      "from_high_reference": -0.156319,
      "from_low_reference": 0.443984
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 3.461739,
      "fair_value_reference": 2.501533,
      "structural_low": 2.79,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": -0.047841,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.016733,
        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
        "best_return": 0.223565,
        "worst_return": -0.114058,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
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        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
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        "median_excess_return": -0.03095,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.185897,
        "worst_return": -0.174517,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.125144,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
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        "regime_survival": 0.2,
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        "worst_return": -0.276519,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "worst_return": -0.402882,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      },
      {
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        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-21",
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        "typical_volume": 17738797.1,
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        "fair_value": 2.479356,
        "relative_strength": 21.756304,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
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        "direction": 40.334207,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "close": 3.83,
        "volume": 18246000,
        "typical_volume": 18046149.25,
        "trend": 3.458141,
        "fair_value": 2.490806,
        "relative_strength": 19.66845,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.775285,
        "energy": 69.885538,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-04",
        "close": 3.735,
        "volume": 22604000,
        "typical_volume": 18024199.25,
        "trend": 3.461739,
        "fair_value": 2.501533,
        "relative_strength": 15.782522,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.429377,
        "energy": 46.754395,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}