{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3954aaf-2d4b-42a7-baa3-1adaef632ec8", "symbol": "PCH", "name": "Pacific Global Holdings Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.311, "architecture_energy": 22.292, "architecture_maturity": 16.813, "architecture_confidence": 74.266, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.6, "rotation_up": 21.95, "upward_expansion": 3.64, "deceleration": 46.03, "rotation_down": 31.02, "downward_expansion": 57.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.012, 0.012, 0.012238, 0.012371 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.012, "trend_reference": 0.012483, "distance_from_trend": -0.038718, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.018824, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.362506, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.813366, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.04, "excess_performance": -0.091235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038718, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062578, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.362506, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027703, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.218134, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066394, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30000, "relative_activity": 0.56528, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.14132, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099167, "annualized_volatility": 0.339932, "from_high_reference": -0.384615, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.012483, "fair_value_reference": 0.018824, "structural_low": 0.008, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.083333, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.015755, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.368421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.25, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.261148, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.208333, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.263216, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.038462, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"start": "2023-07-07", "end": "2023-07-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.541389, "energy": 30.430987, "activity_lines": [ 0.012, 0.012418, 0.012621, 0.01263 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 66152.55, "trend": 0.012583, "fair_value": 0.020093, "relative_strength": -24.822423, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.913603, "energy": 26.173718, "activity_lines": [ 0.012, 0.012273, 0.01256, 0.012581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 66152.55, "trend": 0.012567, "fair_value": 0.019849, "relative_strength": -24.939978, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.833093, "energy": 23.890051, "activity_lines": [ 0.012, 0.012136, 0.0125, 0.012543 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.012, "volume": 308, "typical_volume": 64368.45, "trend": 0.01255, "fair_value": 0.019606, "relative_strength": -22.55266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.540274, "energy": 21.243806, "activity_lines": [ 0.012, 0.012045, 0.012443, 0.012506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 58062.95, "trend": 0.012533, "fair_value": 0.019362, "relative_strength": -22.198878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.238207, "energy": 20.664392, "activity_lines": [ 0.012, 0.012, 0.012388, 0.012471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 58062.95, "trend": 0.012517, "fair_value": 0.019183, "relative_strength": -22.360949, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.211802, "energy": 24.823807, "activity_lines": [ 0.012, 0.012, 0.012336, 0.012437 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 52760.55, "trend": 0.0125, "fair_value": 0.019003, "relative_strength": -22.447938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.312823, "energy": 21.753085, "activity_lines": [ 0.012, 0.012, 0.012286, 0.012403 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.012, "volume": 30000, "typical_volume": 53071.0, "trend": 0.012483, "fair_value": 0.018824, "relative_strength": -21.813366, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.311126, "energy": 22.292472, "activity_lines": [ 0.012, 0.012, 0.012238, 0.012371 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }