{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e398de03-5913-4bbd-9792-be49e3fc6979", "symbol": "WATL", "name": "Amundi MSCI Water UCITS ETF Dist", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 51.545, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 37.51, "architecture_energy": 30.502, "architecture_maturity": 16.736, "architecture_confidence": 66.565, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.62, "rotation_up": 57.58, "upward_expansion": 40.74, "deceleration": 36.66, "rotation_down": 18.34, "downward_expansion": 15.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 6080.066667, 6055.263636, 5988.933333, 5997.726882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 6202.0, "trend_reference": 6028.566667, "distance_from_trend": 0.028769, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5629.968071, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.101605, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.925487, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.003235, "excess_performance": -0.048, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028769, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006546, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.101605, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043153, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049255, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030117, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003235, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.862542, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16470, "relative_activity": 2.255778, "balance": 0.862542, "dry_up": 2.564664, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021437, "annualized_volatility": 0.13903, "from_high_reference": -0.11136, "from_low_reference": 0.092478 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6028.566667, "fair_value_reference": 5629.968071, "structural_low": 5677.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.025968, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.003456, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.042875, "worst_return": -0.072022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.081246, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.017105, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.091558, "worst_return": -0.007279, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.041108, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.043385, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146847, "worst_return": 0.007489, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 5599.633604, "relative_strength": -5.638415, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.594729, "energy": 33.572985, "activity_lines": [ 6036.066667, 5955.290909, 5945.330952, 5981.382796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6061.0, "volume": 26111, "typical_volume": 5567.0, "trend": 6006.366667, "fair_value": 5606.741364, "relative_strength": -5.362411, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.226551, "energy": 36.481123, "activity_lines": [ 6054.233333, 5984.090909, 5953.280952, 5985.436559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6055.0, "volume": 8648, "typical_volume": 5567.4, "trend": 6014.6, "fair_value": 5613.99651, "relative_strength": -6.38431, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.06259, "energy": 35.587361, "activity_lines": [ 6055.466667, 6008.127273, 5962.397619, 5988.574194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5975.5, "volume": 23672, "typical_volume": 6668.4, "trend": 6021.033333, "fair_value": 5621.104123, "relative_strength": -8.408011, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.381557, "energy": 15.75099, "activity_lines": [ 6025.566667, 6012.909091, 5964.792857, 5986.051613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6202.0, "volume": 16470, "typical_volume": 7301.25, "trend": 6028.566667, "fair_value": 5629.968071, "relative_strength": -4.925487, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.509747, "energy": 30.501877, "activity_lines": [ 6080.066667, 6055.263636, 5988.933333, 5997.726882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }