{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e39e4005-756c-449f-bcf3-9020c1505eaa", "symbol": "AHF", "name": "Australian Dairy Nutritionals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.17, "architecture_energy": 48.75, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.389, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.15, "rotation_up": 22.43, "upward_expansion": 7.34, "deceleration": 48.76, "rotation_down": 52.37, "downward_expansion": 78.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.017533, 0.018136, 0.019379, 0.02108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.018, "trend_reference": 0.023112, "distance_from_trend": -0.221191, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.029365, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.387015, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.585138, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.307692, "excess_performance": -0.371398, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.221191, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199685, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.387015, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12869, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.425851, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040069, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.307692, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.093041, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1649238, "relative_activity": 1.214856, "balance": 1.093041, "dry_up": 2.643251, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149573, "annualized_volatility": 0.54474, "from_high_reference": -0.608696, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.023112, "fair_value_reference": 0.029365, "structural_low": 0.015, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.049043, "positive_rate": 0.323529, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.039317, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.375, "worst_return": -0.264151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.196429, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.181559, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.583333, "worst_return": -0.447368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.190476, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.203087, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.916667, "worst_return": -0.644068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.096257, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.208365, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.548077, "worst_return": -0.711864, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-08-26", "end": "2022-09-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044118, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2022-09-16", "end": "2022-11-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136691, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-11-11", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.728814, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"relative_strength": -40.11988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.822186, "energy": 47.047031, "activity_lines": [ 0.0192, 0.019273, 0.021214, 0.022828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0195, "volume": 7978588, "typical_volume": 1230923.75, "trend": 0.024729, "fair_value": 0.02948, "relative_strength": -37.658922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.028837, "energy": 32.111921, "activity_lines": [ 0.019433, 0.019236, 0.020871, 0.022456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.017, "volume": 4434178, "typical_volume": 1385674.9, "trend": 0.024112, "fair_value": 0.029448, "relative_strength": -44.629341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.493249, "energy": 42.250155, "activity_lines": [ 0.018733, 0.018791, 0.020326, 0.021957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.016, "volume": 291462, "typical_volume": 1354594.7, "trend": 0.023479, "fair_value": 0.029403, "relative_strength": -48.100424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.096895, "energy": 54.324692, "activity_lines": [ 0.0177, 0.018236, 0.019733, 0.021434 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.018, "volume": 1649238, "typical_volume": 1357558.1, "trend": 0.023112, "fair_value": 0.029365, "relative_strength": -42.585138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.169505, "energy": 48.75041, "activity_lines": [ 0.017533, 0.018136, 0.019379, 0.02108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }