{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e39f8a46-e005-44bd-b8a6-240449c659cf", "symbol": "MLODT", "name": "Odiot S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.143, "architecture_energy": 65.038, "architecture_maturity": 62.346, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.04, "rotation_up": 25.56, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 51.95, "rotation_down": 63.75, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.026667, 21.847273, 25.283809, 28.390107 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 21.0, "trend_reference": 32.186666, "distance_from_trend": -0.347556, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.78141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.444171, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.700536, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.469697, "excess_performance": -0.523008, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.347556, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136778, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.444171, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.323895, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.437005, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.303331, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.469697, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.050523, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 287, "relative_activity": 0.132683, "balance": 0.050523, "dry_up": 3.876008, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145055, "annualized_volatility": 0.632843, "from_high_reference": -0.475, "from_low_reference": 0.166667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.186666, "fair_value_reference": 37.78141, "structural_low": 18.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.0059, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.019583, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.765217, "worst_return": -0.554167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.070712, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.086807, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.084967, "worst_return": -0.46, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.13, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.145951, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.12069, "worst_return": -0.590164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.100503, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.098901, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005025, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.644342, "energy": 85.936444, "activity_lines": [ 22.16, 24.232727, 28.030476, 30.828817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.6, "volume": 18932, "typical_volume": 1902.3, "trend": 33.486666, "fair_value": 38.03141, "relative_strength": -41.194802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.622188, "energy": 78.70549, "activity_lines": [ 21.88, 23.356363, 27.095238, 30.022795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.0, "volume": 5037, "typical_volume": 2150.45, "trend": 32.82, "fair_value": 37.903205, "relative_strength": -45.759676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.096028, "energy": 68.89065, "activity_lines": [ 21.16, 22.429091, 26.094285, 29.152688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.0, "volume": 287, "typical_volume": 2163.05, "trend": 32.186666, "fair_value": 37.78141, "relative_strength": -43.700536, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.143214, "energy": 65.037641, "activity_lines": [ 21.026667, 21.847273, 25.283809, 28.390107 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }