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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 73.601, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.404, "architecture_energy": 20.502, "architecture_maturity": 29.092, "architecture_confidence": 78.432, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.15, "rotation_up": 23.26, "upward_expansion": 13.46, "deceleration": 43.79, "rotation_down": 33.03, "downward_expansion": 61.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 296.233333, 295.272727, 298.340476, 300.523567 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 299.0, "trend_reference": 302.524029, "distance_from_trend": -0.011649, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 281.549891, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.061979, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.648549, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.01148, "excess_performance": -0.062715, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011649, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001243, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.061979, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034393, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076485, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0569, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01148, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.566631, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6118438, "relative_activity": 2.029527, "balance": 1.566631, "dry_up": 1.537126, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032339, "annualized_volatility": 0.075884, "from_high_reference": -0.06261, "from_low_reference": 0.063163 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 302.524029, "fair_value_reference": 281.549891, 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-8.581027, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.940993, "energy": 38.719998, "activity_lines": [ 293.6, 294.754545, 299.168643, 301.122192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 296.5, "volume": 4140426, "typical_volume": 2889621.8, "trend": 302.423126, "fair_value": 281.375847, "relative_strength": -8.373944, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.069997, "energy": 29.406614, "activity_lines": [ 294.6, 294.718182, 298.609388, 300.744414 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 299.0, "volume": 6118438, "typical_volume": 3014711.7, "trend": 302.524029, "fair_value": 281.549891, "relative_strength": -7.648549, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.404069, "energy": 20.502371, "activity_lines": [ 296.233333, 295.272727, 298.340476, 300.523567 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }