{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3a9646a-d5e0-4494-82e7-5f9019ac9b00", "symbol": "VIAV", "name": "Viavi Solutions Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -7.935, "architecture_energy": 39.831, "architecture_maturity": 74.048, "architecture_confidence": 71.32, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.05, "rotation_up": 14.0, "upward_expansion": 47.97, "deceleration": 87.61, "rotation_down": 52.92, "downward_expansion": 41.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 683.315999, 716.748, 760.773095, 720.439525 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 697.0, "trend_reference": 620.266665, "distance_from_trend": 0.12371, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 285.038463, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.445284, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 60.663722, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 2.91573, "excess_performance": 2.970397, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.12371, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.442239, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.445284, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.257114, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.606637, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.211372, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.91573, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.51565, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53, "relative_activity": 0.020098, "balance": 0.51565, "dry_up": 0.982139, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064032, "annualized_volatility": 1.391049, "from_high_reference": -0.235746, "from_low_reference": 2.91573 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 620.266665, "fair_value_reference": 285.038463, "structural_low": 178.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.167268, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.154732, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.167268, "worst_return": -0.167268, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-12-16", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.161564, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.368092, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04698, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078467, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", 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569.878998, "fair_value": 276.008143, "relative_strength": 61.833133, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.7701, "energy": 29.368408, "activity_lines": [ 730.016662, 771.856364, 779.774474, 702.002621 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 692.0, "volume": 277, "typical_volume": 2799.45, "trend": 587.012331, "fair_value": 279.083143, "relative_strength": 67.832036, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.331229, "energy": 35.53798, "activity_lines": [ 708.029329, 751.552546, 775.364332, 709.881396 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 656.630005, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 2634.45, "trend": 602.966665, "fair_value": 281.931412, "relative_strength": 54.735308, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -22.165536, "energy": 47.735939, "activity_lines": [ 683.131999, 728.817819, 766.448094, 714.372859 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 697.0, "volume": 53, "typical_volume": 2637.1, "trend": 620.266665, "fair_value": 285.038463, "relative_strength": 60.663722, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.935299, "energy": 39.831429, "activity_lines": [ 683.315999, 716.748, 760.773095, 720.439525 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }