{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3acff6a-3f94-4cdb-9491-ba53c05fb83d", "symbol": "VRX", "name": "VRX Silica Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.664, "architecture_energy": 49.072, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.576, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.0, "rotation_up": 27.74, "upward_expansion": 21.22, "deceleration": 46.59, "rotation_down": 40.57, "downward_expansion": 68.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.037733, 0.037273, 0.041241, 0.045332 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.038, "trend_reference": 0.051372, "distance_from_trend": -0.2603, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.069343, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.452, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -49.15605, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.40625, "excess_performance": -0.469956, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.2603, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212954, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.452, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097971, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.49156, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11332, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.40625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.205469, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1458060, "relative_activity": 0.845507, "balance": 0.205469, "dry_up": 0.945981, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107889, "annualized_volatility": 0.581744, "from_high_reference": -0.776471, "from_low_reference": 0.117647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.051372, "fair_value_reference": 0.069343, "structural_low": 0.034, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.055556, "positive_rate": 0.341463, "directional_follow_through": 0.634146, "median_excess_return": -0.052566, "regime_survival": 0.878049, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.247191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.068966, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.109103, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.466667, "worst_return": -0.52809, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.236842, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.14386, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.520548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.309524, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.208477, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.034483, "worst_return": -0.645455, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088372, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.52809, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.425, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.156863, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113636, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.189189, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.304612, "energy": 88.730711, "activity_lines": [ 0.035867, 0.039139, 0.045121, 0.049617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.036, "volume": 1156330, "typical_volume": 1788070.35, "trend": 0.054872, "fair_value": 0.071843, "relative_strength": -51.333708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.674066, "energy": 84.743275, "activity_lines": [ 0.0356, 0.037973, 0.04382, 0.048311 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.039, "volume": 1031049, "typical_volume": 1770787.8, "trend": 0.053739, "fair_value": 0.071003, "relative_strength": -46.475252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.895725, "energy": 63.627246, "activity_lines": [ 0.0366, 0.037606, 0.042919, 0.047287 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.038, "volume": 2879861, "typical_volume": 1818217.05, "trend": 0.052572, "fair_value": 0.070189, "relative_strength": -48.34077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.448045, "energy": 59.785588, "activity_lines": [ 0.037267, 0.03733, 0.042018, 0.046272 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.038, "volume": 1458060, "typical_volume": 1724480.5, "trend": 0.051372, "fair_value": 0.069343, "relative_strength": -49.15605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.663747, "energy": 49.071644, "activity_lines": [ 0.037733, 0.037273, 0.041241, 0.045332 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }