{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3ad9f97-083e-4bcf-bc12-e5e37a3eaf2f", "symbol": "C52", "name": "ComfortDelGro Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.546, "architecture_energy": 25.642, "architecture_maturity": 71.457, "architecture_confidence": 75.429, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.04, "rotation_up": 26.92, "upward_expansion": 19.75, "deceleration": 46.27, "rotation_down": 28.38, "downward_expansion": 56.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.332667, 1.329636, 1.338381, 1.36714 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.33, "trend_reference": 1.404667, "distance_from_trend": -0.053156, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.352708, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.016787, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.10819, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.101351, "excess_performance": -0.256186, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053156, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029926, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.016787, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092484, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221082, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111358, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101351, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.531941, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36005400, "relative_activity": 0.872776, "balance": 0.531941, "dry_up": 0.816066, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032389, "annualized_volatility": 0.205676, "from_high_reference": -0.147436, "from_low_reference": 0.055556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.404667, "fair_value_reference": 1.352708, "structural_low": 1.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -8.1e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010376, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.165048, "worst_return": -0.068028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.025795, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.005286, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.071429, "worst_return": -0.130435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.043176, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.005285, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.148363, "worst_return": -0.108005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-43.534736, "energy": 34.73161, "activity_lines": [ 1.329333, 1.316, 1.357429, 1.388645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.34, "volume": 35845600, "typical_volume": 47727105.0, "trend": 1.418667, "fair_value": 1.348342, "relative_strength": -20.773243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.887845, "energy": 26.97342, "activity_lines": [ 1.336, 1.320182, 1.35219, 1.383355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.32, "volume": 34890400, "typical_volume": 44026985.0, "trend": 1.413667, "fair_value": 1.349808, "relative_strength": -22.383332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.300678, "energy": 27.570823, "activity_lines": [ 1.332667, 1.322364, 1.346048, 1.376989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.34, "volume": 27922200, "typical_volume": 42466405.0, "trend": 1.409, "fair_value": 1.35129, "relative_strength": -21.179904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.606341, "energy": 24.972891, "activity_lines": [ 1.334667, 1.327455, 1.342476, 1.372237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.33, "volume": 36005400, "typical_volume": 41253880.0, "trend": 1.404667, "fair_value": 1.352708, "relative_strength": -22.10819, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.545624, "energy": 25.641509, "activity_lines": [ 1.332667, 1.329636, 1.338381, 1.36714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }