{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3ae49b3-bff2-4ee7-b3df-443c5129872d", "symbol": "NPW", "name": "Malaysia Smelting Corporation Berhad", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.859, "architecture_energy": 35.032, "architecture_maturity": 24.996, "architecture_confidence": 72.717, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.84, "rotation_up": 47.81, "upward_expansion": 72.06, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 20.87, "downward_expansion": 5.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.622333, 0.618059, 0.610587, 0.605035 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.655, "trend_reference": 0.602327, "distance_from_trend": 0.087449, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.329473, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.988026, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.501036, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.169643, "excess_performance": 0.014808, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087449, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075804, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.988026, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029367, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.03501, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090968, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.169643, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 13.581232, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 185700, "relative_activity": 1.122461, "balance": 13.581232, "dry_up": 0.386545, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05711, "annualized_volatility": 0.340832, "from_high_reference": -0.070922, "from_low_reference": 1.00879 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.602327, "fair_value_reference": 0.329473, "structural_low": 0.530981, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.010395, "regime_survival": 0.74359, "best_return": 0.534651, "worst_return": -0.283134, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.094216, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.001347, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.455556, "worst_return": -0.493138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.188141, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.131354, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.756614, "worst_return": -0.676832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 0.59116, "fair_value": 0.317497, "relative_strength": 1.641401, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.506972, "energy": 15.843886, "activity_lines": [ 0.608, 0.615528, 0.602369, 0.598818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.62, "volume": 39400, "typical_volume": 251875.0, "trend": 0.594827, "fair_value": 0.320545, "relative_strength": 2.849331, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.279041, "energy": 20.05891, "activity_lines": [ 0.61, 0.616993, 0.604418, 0.600679 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.605, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 221220.0, "trend": 0.597494, "fair_value": 0.323415, "relative_strength": -1.460544, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.209367, "energy": 16.454043, "activity_lines": [ 0.607333, 0.614757, 0.605038, 0.601335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.6, "volume": 29300, "typical_volume": 189305.0, "trend": 0.60016, "fair_value": 0.326267, "relative_strength": -3.410966, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.699109, "energy": 13.212948, "activity_lines": [ 0.606, 0.611311, 0.605158, 0.601497 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.655, "volume": 185700, "typical_volume": 165440.0, "trend": 0.602327, "fair_value": 0.329473, "relative_strength": 3.501036, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.859436, "energy": 35.032331, "activity_lines": [ 0.622333, 0.618059, 0.610587, 0.605035 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }