{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3b0ad7d-6caa-4332-ad14-0e6735fe1c13", "symbol": "688323", "name": "Rayitek Hi-Tech Film Company Ltd., Shenzhen", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 83.262, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.237, "architecture_energy": 32.31, "architecture_maturity": 58.945, "architecture_confidence": 51.698, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.99, "rotation_up": 14.06, "upward_expansion": 16.05, "deceleration": 72.68, "rotation_down": 63.66, "downward_expansion": 41.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.633334, 34.248364, 34.786476, 32.293957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.75, "trend_reference": 29.336667, "distance_from_trend": -0.019998, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.926987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.603727, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 21.025937, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.089841, "excess_performance": 0.133045, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019998, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.302289, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.603727, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079009, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.210259, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.210848, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.089841, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.024573, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83504346, "relative_activity": 1.425439, "balance": 1.024573, "dry_up": 1.187273, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.382181, "annualized_volatility": 1.316304, "from_high_reference": -0.588698, "from_low_reference": 1.033239 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.336667, "fair_value_reference": 17.926987, "structural_low": 19.09, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.064698, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.048275, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.376719, "worst_return": -0.156483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.237705, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.228977, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.908769, "worst_return": 0.026182, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.13682, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.125778, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.298976, "worst_return": -0.025335, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.149031, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.158239, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022545, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.169725, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003797, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.165173, 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26.52, "volume": 60557728, "typical_volume": 51537871.15, "trend": 29.123, "fair_value": 17.901154, "relative_strength": 19.324713, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.212004, "energy": 23.770208, "activity_lines": [ 40.556001, 42.213636, 36.588143, 33.020688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.700001, "volume": 60089242, "typical_volume": 52958776.2, "trend": 29.212667, "fair_value": 17.906859, "relative_strength": 8.916006, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.730877, "energy": 21.155098, "activity_lines": [ 33.137334, 39.234728, 35.92881, 32.735333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.75, "volume": 74057632, "typical_volume": 55322515.7, "trend": 29.128667, "fair_value": 17.891795, "relative_strength": -0.650288, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.330636, "energy": 31.770231, "activity_lines": [ 27.522, 36.033819, 35.072333, 32.318387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.75, "volume": 83504346, "typical_volume": 58581506.25, "trend": 29.336667, "fair_value": 17.926987, "relative_strength": 21.025937, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.237463, "energy": 32.310087, "activity_lines": [ 26.633334, 34.248364, 34.786476, 32.293957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }