{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3b2585e-5463-4b55-aeb2-8241ca87864a", "symbol": "ACWX", "name": "iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.728, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.561, "architecture_energy": 41.999, "architecture_maturity": 42.363, "architecture_confidence": 82.616, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.39, "rotation_up": 36.78, "upward_expansion": 62.68, "deceleration": 85.52, "rotation_down": 27.87, "downward_expansion": 24.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 1310.2, 1312.375036, 1302.93811, 1288.518704 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1319.0, "trend_reference": 1271.451416, "distance_from_trend": 0.037397, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1063.417178, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.240341, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.464739, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.068648, "excess_performance": 0.123315, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037397, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02982, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.240341, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019024, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.044647, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068237, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068648, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.351, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 131, "relative_activity": 0.06533, "balance": 0.351, "dry_up": 1.718906, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010944, "annualized_volatility": 0.132316, "from_high_reference": -0.005279, "from_low_reference": 0.162934 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1271.451416, "fair_value_reference": 1063.417178, "structural_low": 1197.900024, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.016009, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.006053, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.046804, "worst_return": -0.04483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.027012, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.005452, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.102763, "worst_return": -0.060837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.04435, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.026691, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.144957, "worst_return": -0.066598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024431, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000874, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06952, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0163, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.065747, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", 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"fair_value": 1054.361969, "relative_strength": 4.118995, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.378088, "energy": 57.501687, "activity_lines": [ 1316.566667, 1313.88594, 1294.285859, 1280.434032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1302.0, "volume": 62, "typical_volume": 2013.7, "trend": 1265.984749, "fair_value": 1057.328549, "relative_strength": 3.957478, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.471939, "energy": 46.787693, "activity_lines": [ 1311.333333, 1313.010547, 1296.947609, 1282.966199 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1302.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2012.9, "trend": 1268.951416, "fair_value": 1060.287577, "relative_strength": 3.139077, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.22903, "energy": 42.366278, "activity_lines": [ 1307.3, 1311.458629, 1299.292883, 1285.289763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1319.0, "volume": 131, "typical_volume": 2005.2, "trend": 1271.451416, "fair_value": 1063.417178, "relative_strength": 4.464739, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.5613, "energy": 41.998771, "activity_lines": [ 1310.2, 1312.375036, 1302.93811, 1288.518704 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }