{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3b2f9fc-121b-4a85-adfb-3528d4cc30f7", "symbol": "TPST", "name": "Tempest Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.638, "architecture_energy": 83.166, "architecture_maturity": 53.446, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.24, "rotation_up": 25.65, "upward_expansion": 20.23, "deceleration": 38.14, "rotation_down": 62.35, "downward_expansion": 95.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.91276, 0.984198, 1.240523, 1.462815 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.9167, "trend_reference": 1.788597, "distance_from_trend": -0.487475, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.663506, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.948102, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -81.817856, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.618042, "excess_performance": -0.805495, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.487475, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.380107, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.948102, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053281, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.818179, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104797, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.618042, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.130069, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 385586, "relative_activity": 0.397503, "balance": 0.130069, "dry_up": 0.920225, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.203746, "annualized_volatility": 0.734768, "from_high_reference": -0.925045, "from_low_reference": 0.09118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.788597, "fair_value_reference": 17.663506, "structural_low": 0.8401, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.094411, "positive_rate": 0.276596, "directional_follow_through": 0.723404, "median_excess_return": -0.101223, "regime_survival": 0.893617, "best_return": 6.477403, "worst_return": -0.484305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.039566, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.051238, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 3.613861, "worst_return": -0.6843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.472, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.472538, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.90099, "worst_return": -0.724138, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 1.079, 1.237273, 1.508333, 1.731935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.966, "volume": 1223209, "typical_volume": 908954.35, "trend": 1.992967, "fair_value": 17.855355, "relative_strength": -81.890484, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.457714, "energy": 89.34164, "activity_lines": [ 1.025467, 1.156309, 1.436462, 1.661047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.9259, "volume": 1412193, "typical_volume": 959158.4, "trend": 1.924163, "fair_value": 17.777974, "relative_strength": -81.794818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.63679, "energy": 86.811288, "activity_lines": [ 0.978167, 1.086673, 1.367029, 1.592204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.8563, "volume": 549561, "typical_volume": 971190.85, "trend": 1.854373, "fair_value": 17.709296, "relative_strength": -82.703654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.811435, "energy": 89.664893, "activity_lines": [ 0.92794, 1.02082, 1.297558, 1.52331 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9167, "volume": 385586, "typical_volume": 970020.8, "trend": 1.788597, "fair_value": 17.663506, "relative_strength": -81.817856, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.638311, "energy": 83.165966, "activity_lines": [ 0.91276, 0.984198, 1.240523, 1.462815 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }