{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3b9fdec-7e50-45c1-8cb6-7c983e8282c9", "symbol": "SCDV", "name": "BAHL & GAYNOR SMALL CAP DIVIDEND ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.459, "architecture_energy": 59.263, "architecture_maturity": 21.641, "architecture_confidence": 75.789, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.54, "rotation_up": 66.75, "upward_expansion": 84.45, "deceleration": 51.67, "rotation_down": 18.73, "downward_expansion": 8.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.81228, 27.605065, 27.160464, 26.827232 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.3679, "trend_reference": 26.499489, "distance_from_trend": 0.070507, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.401578, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.162544, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.171083, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.058704, "excess_performance": -0.066921, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070507, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042869, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.162544, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044196, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011711, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023314, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058704, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.988844, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78068, "relative_activity": 1.948772, "balance": 1.988844, "dry_up": 1.064613, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025687, "annualized_volatility": 0.130075, "from_high_reference": -0.002535, "from_low_reference": 0.220609 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.499489, "fair_value_reference": 24.401578, "structural_low": 24.287049, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.01036, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.01498, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.01036, "worst_return": 0.01036, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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66.165303, "energy": 72.669996, "activity_lines": [ 27.419862, 27.077652, 26.646354, 26.437443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.492975, "volume": 9575, "typical_volume": 37299.7, "trend": 26.170897, "fair_value": 24.279701, "relative_strength": -0.538244, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.763455, "energy": 69.535097, "activity_lines": [ 27.49263, 27.190878, 26.761153, 26.529976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.432893, "volume": 31933, "typical_volume": 36361.5, "trend": 26.273627, "fair_value": 24.316798, "relative_strength": -0.128696, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.732537, "energy": 55.890804, "activity_lines": [ 27.484255, 27.27968, 26.86736, 26.611395 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.6416, "volume": 51018, "typical_volume": 38592.8, "trend": 26.39041, "fair_value": 24.355458, "relative_strength": -0.400089, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.116096, "energy": 46.341282, "activity_lines": [ 27.53066, 27.385503, 26.985356, 26.699652 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.3679, "volume": 78068, "typical_volume": 40060.1, "trend": 26.499489, "fair_value": 24.401578, "relative_strength": -1.171083, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.459235, "energy": 59.262857, "activity_lines": [ 27.81228, 27.605065, 27.160464, 26.827232 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }