{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3bf07a4-7a46-481f-a0fc-ec892374ec9b", "symbol": "UC96", "name": "UBS Factor MSCI USA Prime Value Screened UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.351, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.002, "architecture_energy": 52.299, "architecture_maturity": 58.153, "architecture_confidence": 48.984, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.04, "rotation_up": 43.4, "upward_expansion": 72.91, "deceleration": 74.33, "rotation_down": 29.12, "downward_expansion": 13.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 3160.666667, 3160.5, 3116.52619, 3072.773277 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3206.0, "trend_reference": 3027.607609, "distance_from_trend": 0.058922, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2766.956812, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.158674, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.363336, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.070163, "excess_performance": 0.018928, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058922, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02754, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.158674, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058966, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003633, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012538, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070163, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.685012, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31874, "relative_activity": 3.652029, "balance": 0.685012, "dry_up": 2.840852, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017107, "annualized_volatility": 0.102053, "from_high_reference": -0.006815, "from_low_reference": 0.199255 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3027.607609, "fair_value_reference": 2766.956812, "structural_low": 2812.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.014842, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.002253, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.055368, "worst_return": -0.020447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.035684, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.011128, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.084855, "worst_return": -0.109586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.023159, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.058027, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.11199, "worst_return": -0.058016, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.001771, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032911, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032445, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006391, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.01347, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007347, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01229, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.141371, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2361.383057, "volume": 22828, "typical_volume": 24027.4, "trend": 2394.731706, "fair_value": 2222.717269, "relative_strength": 1.406339, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": 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2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.002374, "energy": 52.298748, "activity_lines": [ 3160.666667, 3160.5, 3116.52619, 3072.773277 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }