{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3c0b7f5-86f1-4440-a74a-5ab545d0518f", "symbol": "300518", "name": "Guangxi Xinxunda Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.781, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.294, "architecture_energy": 32.413, "architecture_maturity": 9.425, "architecture_confidence": 43.122, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.89, "rotation_up": 16.87, "upward_expansion": 18.74, "deceleration": 62.34, "rotation_down": 63.09, "downward_expansion": 41.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.751333, 24.356, 25.913286, 25.081419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.75, "trend_reference": 23.86, "distance_from_trend": 0.037301, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.165449, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.631999, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 20.63474, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.229508, "excess_performance": 0.222109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037301, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.142119, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.631999, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.370196, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.206347, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.261982, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.229508, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.502168, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64128975, "relative_activity": 1.33523, "balance": 0.502168, "dry_up": 1.144853, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.208236, "annualized_volatility": 0.839457, "from_high_reference": -0.284682, "from_low_reference": 1.079832 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.86, "fair_value_reference": 15.165449, "structural_low": 16.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002358, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006273, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.024588, "worst_return": -0.025445, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.001235, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.035915, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.421907, "worst_return": -0.114558, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.24086, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.072173, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.317444, "worst_return": -0.311901, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053763, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069553, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033029, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135669, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03346, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005999, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.710123, "energy": 39.238717, "activity_lines": [ 29.676667, 29.577637, 27.544, 25.718301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.139999, "volume": 47522245, "typical_volume": 45416519.8, "trend": 23.521667, "fair_value": 15.168974, "relative_strength": 13.594459, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.307203, "energy": 12.039167, "activity_lines": [ 27.29, 28.213636, 27.243143, 25.637075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.639999, "volume": 54449188, "typical_volume": 46705777.55, "trend": 23.622667, "fair_value": 15.163205, "relative_strength": 0.159809, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.82223, "energy": 16.915856, "activity_lines": [ 24.357333, 26.532727, 26.692762, 25.386645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.76, "volume": 53841392, "typical_volume": 47157970.05, "trend": 23.618333, "fair_value": 15.141282, "relative_strength": -8.201728, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.860125, "energy": 38.949032, "activity_lines": [ 21.498, 24.675091, 25.96219, 25.008409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.75, "volume": 64128975, "typical_volume": 48028404.2, "trend": 23.86, "fair_value": 15.165449, "relative_strength": 20.63474, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.293619, "energy": 32.412952, "activity_lines": [ 21.751333, 24.356, 25.913286, 25.081419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }